We look at how often the bookmakers’ favourite after the first week of I’m A Celebrity goes on to win the show after three weeks in the jungle.
In a comprehensive analysis spanning the past nine seasons of I’m A Celebrity, we delved into the data to assess the bookmakers' accuracy in predicting the eventual winner of the show after the first week. The results unveil intriguing insights into the reliability of these early odds.
I’m A Celebrity 2023 Odds
Out of the previous nine favourites after week one, five have eventually gone on to win the coveted title of King or Queen of the Jungle. Remarkably, only two of these favourites found themselves outside the top three entirely: Jimmy Bullard in 2014 and David Ginola in 2021.
How have the first week favourites fared on I’m A Celebrity?
| Year | Contestant | Odds | % Chance of Winning | Finishing Position |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | Jimmy Bullard | 1/1 | 50% | 10th |
| 2015 | Vicky Pattison | 2/1 | 33.3% | 1st |
| 2016 | Scarlett Moffatt | 1/1 | 50% | 1st |
| 2017 | Georgia Toffolo | 1/1 | 50% | 1st |
| 2018 | Harry Redknapp | 1/1 | 50% | 1st |
| 2019 | Andrew Whyment | 3/1 | 25% | 2nd |
| 2020 | Jordan North | 5/6 | 54.5% | 2nd |
| 2021 | David Ginola | 2/1 | 33.3% | 4th |
| 2022 | Jill Scott | 1/2 | 66.7% | 1st |
| 2023 | Sam Thompson | 6/4 | 40% | N/A |
For contestants ranking among the top three favourites in betting after the initial week, a substantial 70% translated their early promise into a top-three finish.
Outliers include three winners who emerged from beyond the top three in the early betting odds: Carl Fogarty (14/1, 2014), Giovanna Fletcher (9/1, 2020), and Danny Miller (10/1, 2021).
When assessing contestants given a 50% chance (1/1) or more after week one, four out of six instances resulted in them clinching the ultimate victory. On the other hand, favourites with odds indicating a 50% or lower chance won only once on three occasions, exemplified by Vicky Pattison (2/1, 2015).
I’m A Celebrity Winners
Let’s look at the last nine winners of I’m A Celebrity and their implied chance of winning according to the bookmaker odds after the first week.
| Year | Winner | Odds | % Chance of Winning |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | Carl Fogarty | 14/1 | 6.7 |
| 2015 | Vicky Pattison | 2/1 | 33.3% |
| 2016 | Scarlett Moffatt | 1/1 | 50% |
| 2017 | Georgia Toffolo | 1/1 | 50% |
| 2018 | Harry Redknapp | 1/1 | 50% |
| 2019 | Jacqueline Jossa | 4/1 | 20% |
| 2020 | Giovanna Fletcher | 9/1 | 10% |
| 2021 | Danny Miller | 10/1 | 9.1% |
| 2022 | Jill Scott | 1/2 | 66.7% |
I’m A Celebrity 2023 Favourites
Examining the data over the past nine seasons of I’m A Celeb, the bookmakers have demonstrated relative success in accurately predicting the winner after week one.
Leon Blackman from oddschecker said: “In five out of the nine instances, the betting favourite has claimed the title of King or Queen of the Jungle. Notably, 70% of contestants ranked in the top three in betting after week one concluded the series within the top three.
“The current season’s betting landscape is particularly intriguing, deviating from past trends. This year sees two contestants with odds under 2/1 to win: Sam Thompson (6/4) and Josie Gibson (7/4).
“A similar occurrence transpired in 2015 when Vicky Pattison was the 6/4 favourite and Jorgie Porter a 2/1 second favourite. In this instant, Pattison was ultimately crowned Queen of the Jungle. Could Sam Thompson be poised for a similar outcome?
Adding weight to Sam Thompson’s prospects is the fact that three of the last nine winners have emerged from Reality TV series. Could Thompson’s Made in Chelsea roots propel him to become the next King of the Jungle?”
Who is the favourite to win I’m A Celebrity 2023?
The bookmakers’ favourite to win I’m a Celebrity 2023 is Sam Thompson (best price 6/5), formerly a reality TV star who became famous on Made in Chelsea before appearing on Celebrity Big Brother. His girlfriend Zara McDermott was eliminated from Strictly Come Dancing in Week 6 of the show.
I’m A Celebrity Top 3 Finish Odds
The Top 3 from the last nine series of I’m A Celebrity and their implied chance of winning according to the bookmaker odds after the first week.
| Year | Contestant | Week 1 Odds | 2nd | Week 1 Odds | 3rd | Week 1 Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | Carl Fogarty | 14/1 | Jake Quickenden | 7/1 | Melanie Sykes | 2/1 |
| 2015 | Vicky Pattison | 2/1 | George Shelley | 4/1 | Ferne McCann | 14/1 |
| 2016 | Scarlett Moffatt | 1/1 | Joel Dommett | 5/1 | Adam Thomas | 6/1 |
| 2017 | Georgia Toffolo | 1/1 | Jamie Lomas | 6/1 | Iain Lee | 10/1 |
| 2018 | Harry Redknapp | 1/1 | Emily Atack | 9/1 | John Barrowman | 9/1 |
| 2019 | Jacqueline Jossa | 4/1 | Andy Whyment | 3/1 | Roman Kemp | 4/1 |
| 2020 | Giovanna Fletcher | 9/1 | Jordan North | 5/6 | Vernon Kay | 5/1 |
| 2021 | Danny Miller | 10/1 | Simon Gregson | 3/1 | Frankie Bridge | 3/1 |
| 2022 | Jill Scott | 1/2 | Owen Warner | 3/1 | Matt Hancock | 4/1 |
