There has been a surge of bets across Oddschecker on Thursday backing Andy Burham to become the next Labour Party Leader.
Andy Burnham’s odds to become the Next Labour Leader have been dramatically slashed on Thursday, after reports emerged that suspended MP Andrew Gwynne could be on the brink of standing down from Parliament — a move that could open the door for Burnham’s long-rumoured return to Westminster.
Across Oddschecker’s bookmakers, the Greater Manchester Mayor has been backed heavily to replace Sir Keir Starmer, with Burnham cut from 6/1 into as short as 3/1 with some firms. The best available price at the time of writing is 4/1 with Sky Bet, but the speed of the move has seen Burnham leapfrog Wes Streeting and Angela Rayner to become the clear market leader. The Next Labour Leader market has also ranked among the most popular non-sports markets across Oddschecker on Thursday, as punters react quickly to the latest developments.
Who is favourite to become the Next Labour Party Leader?
Andy Burnham is now the bookmakers’ favourite in the Next Labour Leader market following Thursday’s betting surge.
| # | Candidate | Best Odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Andy Burnham | 4/1 | Sky Bet |
| 2 | Wes Streeting | 9/2 | Ladbrokes |
| 3 | Angela Rayner | 11/2 | Ladbrokes |
| 4 | Shabana Mahmood | 9/1 | Ladbrokes |
| 5 | Ed Miliband | 16/1 | bet365 |
Odds correct at the time of writing (16:00 Thursday 22nd January) and subject to change.
The odds swing follows a BBC report suggesting Gwynne has reached agreement on a pension which would allow him to retire as an MP on medical grounds — triggering a by-election in Gorton and Denton, a constituency Labour won at the last election with a majority of 13,000. Crucially, Burnham would likely need to return to the House of Commons to realistically mount any future leadership bid, and a by-election represents the clearest pathway for him to do so.
Punters have wasted no time in responding. 70% of bets placed through Oddschecker on Thursday have backed Burnham to become the next Labour leader — a huge spike from 30% bet share recorded just a fortnight ago — suggesting the shortening has been driven by demand as much as bookmaker caution.
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However, Burnham’s route back to Parliament is not guaranteed. The report notes Labour’s National Executive Committee (NEC) would need to approve his candidacy, and some party sources expect objections on the grounds it could trigger a costly Greater Manchester mayoral by-election. There are also suggestions the NEC could push for an all-women shortlist — yet union figures have already waded in, with the Fire Brigades Union branding any attempt to block Burnham as a “democratic outrage”.
The wider political betting picture is also increasing the intensity around Labour’s leadership markets. In the Keir Starmer Exit Date market, Starmer is now 4/5 to leave his post in 2026, with some firms shortening that price to as low as 8/13 on Thursday — a move that indicates punters are increasingly pricing in leadership turbulence over the next 12 months.
Meanwhile, Labour’s general election outlook continues to wobble in the markets. The party are currently 11/4 second favourites in the Next General Election – Most Seats Won market, with Reform as 1/1 favourites, adding further pressure to the broader narrative around Labour’s direction.
If Gwynne’s resignation is confirmed and Burnham signals any real intent to contest the seat, markets are likely to remain volatile — and further shortening could follow.
For more updates, odds movement and the latest political markets, visit Oddschecker’s British Politics homepage .
