The 2026 Eurovision Song Contest grand final is set in Vienna after a week of high-drama semi-finals, with a stacked line-up of qualifiers and a running order that has already sparked debate among analysts and fans.
The field has narrowed to 25 acts, including strong contenders from Finland, Australia and Greece, while surprise qualifiers such as Romania and Denmark have added extra unpredictability to the contest.
All eyes now turn to whether pre-contest favourite Finland can convert popularity into victory, or whether a late surge from Australia’s pop heavyweight entry or Greece’s vocal-driven staging can upset the markets on the night.
Check out Sam Eaton's Eurovision Final tips here.
Eurovision 2026 Grand Final Odds
| Country | Odds |
|---|---|
| Finland | 1/1 |
| Australia | 4/1 |
| Greece | 10/1 |
| Israel | 13/1 |
| Romania | 14/1 |
| Denmark | 33/1 |
| Bulgaria | 35/1 |
| Italy | 50/1 |
| France | 66/1 |
| Malta | 80/1 |
| Czechia | 125/1 |
| Moldova | 150/1 |
| Ukraine | 160/1 |
| Albania | 175/1 |
| Sweden | 200/1 |
| Cyprus | 200/1 |
| Croatia | 200/1 |
| Norway | 250/1 |
| United Kingdom | 400/1 |
| Poland | 500/1 |
| Germany | 500/1 |
| Serbia | 500/1 |
| Austria | 800/1 |
| Belgium | 800/1 |
| Lithuania | 800/1 |
Who is favourite to win Eurovision 2026?
Finland remain the clear market leader heading into the final, priced at 1/1 and backed by strong momentum across both fan sentiment and betting markets. Their entry has been consistently positioned as the act to beat, and their odds reflect a broad appeal across juries and televoters.
Australia sit as the main challenger at 4/1 after a surge in support following a standout semi-final performance from Delta Goodrem. Their odds were 15/1 before that performance. Their entry has strengthened significantly in the outright market and is viewed as the most credible threat to Finland’s dominance, particularly if they score heavily with juries.
Behind the top two, Greece (10/1) and Israel (13/1) remain firmly in contention for a podium finish, while Romania (14/1) has emerged as a surprise live outsider with growing interest.
Eurovision 2026 Betting
Historical performance indicators continue to prove highly influential in Eurovision forecasting.
Fan polling remains one of the strongest signals. In the large Eurovisionworld community poll (over 167,000 votes cast), Finland dominate with 19% support, ahead of Denmark (9%), Greece (6%) and Australia (5%). Historically, the eventual winner has finished inside the top three of this poll every year since 2015, with the winner also topping the poll in seven of the last ten contests.
The data also shows a strong correlation between early poll dominance and eventual victory. Since 2015, no act with 17% or more of the vote has gone on to lose the contest, placing Finland’s current 19% in a historically strong position.
Betting market behaviour reinforces the same trend. Oddschecker user data shows Finland again leading with 17% of all backing activity, followed by Greece (13%) and Israel (8%). In eight of the last ten contests, the eventual winner has ranked among the top three most-backed acts going into the final.
Australia’s rise is the key wildcard in the market. While their odds have shortened significantly, historical televote performance concerns remain, with analysts noting they often rely more heavily on jury support than public vote momentum. If that pattern repeats, Australia may struggle to sustain a winning position once the full results are combined.
As things stand, both the data and the market continue to point towards Finland as the most likely winner, with Greece and Australia emerging as the only serious disruptors capable of challenging the outright favourite on the night.
