Who is favourite to win the 2026 Mercury Prize ahead of Thursday's ceremony?
Olivia Dean goes into Thursday's Mercury Prize as favourite. The Art of Loving is 4/1 at best after a year in which it spent eight weeks at No 1 and won album of the year at both the Brits and the MOBOs. Recent history is a warning, though. The Mercury has a long record of going to outsiders, and last year Sam Fender won after CMAT went off as favourite.
The 2026 shortlist mixes a few of the year's biggest records with some much smaller ones. RAYE, Dave, Florence + The Machine and Paul McCartney all reached No 1. Dove Ellis's debut and Nia Archives' jungle-rooted second album got there through critical acclaim rather than sales.
When Is the Mercury Prize 2026?
The 2026 Mercury Prize ceremony is on Thursday 22 October at the Utilita Arena in Newcastle, and doors open at 8pm. Lauren Laverne hosts, and the winner gets £25,000. It's the first time the Mercury has been held in Newcastle, and Knats will be playing in their home city.
Nine of the nominees each play a track from their album, and Pulp perform on behalf of the War Child compilation HELP(2). Dave and McCartney won't be performing, and a short film will be shown for each of them instead.
How to Watch the Mercury Prize 2026
BBC Four and BBC iPlayer show the ceremony from 9.30pm. BBC Radio 6 Music has coverage from 7pm. The full show will be on iPlayer and BBC Sounds afterwards.
Mercury Prize 2026 Odds
Who is favourite to win the Mercury Prize?
| Selection | Best odds | Best at | Worst odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Olivia Dean – The Art of Loving | 4/1 | Ladbrokes, Coral | 2/1 |
| RAYE – THIS MUSIC MAY CONTAIN HOPE. | 6/1 | Betfair, Ladbrokes, Coral, Sky Bet, Paddy Power | 9/2 |
| Nia Archives – Emotional Junglist | 6/1 | Ladbrokes, Coral | 2/1 |
| Dave – The Boy Who Played the Harp | 15/2 | Unibet | 10/3 |
| Dove Ellis – Blizzard | 10/1 | William Hill | 7/1 |
| Kojey Radical – Don't Look Down | 11/1 | Betfair, Sky Bet, Paddy Power | 8/1 |
| Florence + The Machine – Everybody Scream | 14/1 | Betfair, Sky Bet, Paddy Power | 5/1 |
| Paul McCartney – The Boys of Dungeon Lane | 18/1 | Betfair, Sky Bet, Paddy Power | 11/1 |
| Knats – A Great Day In Newcastle | 20/1 | Betfair, Sky Bet, Paddy Power | 9/1 |
| JADE – THAT'S SHOWBIZ BABY! | 20/1 | Betfair, Sky Bet, Paddy Power | 8/1 |
| War Child Records – HELP(2) | 25/1 | Betfair, Sky Bet, Paddy Power | 14/1 |
| Suede – Antidepressants | 25/1 | Betfair, Sky Bet, Paddy Power | 10/1 |
Odds are subject to fluctuation and correct as of 09:09 BST, Monday 19 October: www.oddschecker.com/awards/mercury-prize/winner
At 4/1, Dean has around a 20% chance of winning, according to the odds. Bookmakers disagree a lot on the order behind her, though. Betfair, Sky Bet and Paddy Power make Dean and Nia Archives joint favourites at 2/1. Ladbrokes and Coral have both at a bigger price, with Nia Archives 6/1. Betfred cut Dean to 3/1 on Sunday. It also shortened Nia Archives to 5/1, RAYE to 9/2 and Dave to 13/2, which suggests the market thinks this is between more than one album.
Nia Archives is the most popular bet on Oddschecker, ahead of Dove Ellis, Knats, Dean and Suede. Her album is the only dance record on the shortlist and gives her a second nomination after 2024. RAYE, 6/1, is on her second nomination in a row. Dave is 15/2 to become only the second artist after PJ Harvey to win the Mercury twice. He won in 2019 with his debut, Psychodrama.
Mercury Prize 2026 Predictions
History is the strongest argument against the favourite. Last year CMAT went off favourite and Fender won at around 9/1. The judges have often rewarded a record that sold modestly, and more than half of all winners have been debut albums.
That makes Dove Ellis the most interesting outsider. Blizzard is his debut and peaked at only No 47, but it got five-star reviews, and music journalist Mark Savage said it "stands out as a potential winner".
Florence + The Machine is 14/1 on her fourth nomination without a win. If she loses again, only Radiohead will have more nominations without ever winning. McCartney is 18/1 on his first nomination, at the age of 84.
Our prediction: Dean is the most likely winner, but 4/1 is a short price given how often the Mercury favourite loses. For anyone looking for an outsider, Dove Ellis at 10/1 fits the profile of a typical Mercury winner better than anything else on the shortlist.
*This is an editorial view, not a tip*.
