We've used our Positive Expected Value tool to pick out five of the highest value plays for Sunday's NFL matchups.
NFL Betting Odds
How does Positive Expected Value (EV) betting work?
When bookmakers set betting lines, they estimate the likelihood of each outcome.
Value Bets, our positive EV tool available for Oddschecker+ subscribers, leverages advanced AI to perform 100 million projections each week and monitors 125 million live price changes daily. This enables it to identify bets that have a higher probability of winning than what the lines suggest.
Shown below are the Anytime Touchdown bets with the most promising projected payouts (or expected values) for the NFL 6pm Sunday games.
Keenan Allen (Los Angeles Chargers) Anytime Touchdown vs New York Giants - 1pt - 21/10 with 10Bet - Only back at 2/1 and greater
Back in L.A., Keenan Allen has scored in all three games (19 catches, 3 TDs) and leads a red-hot Justin Herbert passing game into a friendly spot.
New York’s defense has struggled, sitting bottom-five in yards allowed and bottom-five in opponent red-zone TD rate.
Add in that Allen’s been a featured finisher (multiple red-zone looks and a weekly TD so far), and the vet again projects as Herbert’s most trusted scoring option.
Cleveland Browns @ Detroit Lions
Amon-Ra St. Brown (Lions) — Anytime TD (Browns @ Lions) - 1pt - 11/8 with William Hill - Don't play lower than 1/1 (2.0)
Four touchdowns in three games — and coming off Monday Night Football where he posted 7/77/1 — St. Brown remains the Lions’ premier scoring outlet.
Yes, Cleveland’s defense is No. 1 in yards allowed and generally suffocating, but their red-zone TD rate allowed is mid-pack to poor, and Detroit schemed St.Brown open repeatedly vs. Baltimore.
Heavy target share + elite chain-moving usage keeps him in prime scoring position even against a top unit.
Philadelphia Eagles @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Saquon Barkley (Eagles) — Anytime TD (Eagles @ Buccaneers) - 1pt - 5/6 with Bet365 - Play no lower than 8/11
Barkley enters with 58 carries, 194 rushing yards and 2 TDs on a Philadelphia offense that’s been perfect (100%) in the red zone through three weeks — powered by the Jalen Hurts “tush push” and downhill run looks.
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Tampa Bay remains sturdy on the ground (3.6 Yards Per Carry allowed), but with the Bucs focusing resources on A.J. Brown/DeVonta Smith, Philadelphia’s goal-to-go menu still funnels to Barkley/Hurts inside the five.
Volume + elite red-zone efficiency keeps Barkley firmly in the end-zone mix.
Philadelphia Eagles @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Emeka Egbuka (Buccaneers) — Anytime TD (Eagles @ Buccaneers) - 1pt - 19/10 with AK Bets - Play no lower than 7/4
The rookie has been instant impact: 14 receptions, 181 yards, 3 TDs through three games, plus a real downfield role (4-for-6 on 20+ air-yard targets for 113 yards and two scores).
With Evans out and Chris Godwin only just returning, Egbuka’s route tree (deep posts/fades) gives him outs from distance if the Eagles clamp down in the red area.
Baker Mayfield is expected to play, which preserves the QB-WR continuity.
Carolina Panthers @ New England Patriots
Kayshon Boutte (Patriots) — Anytime TD (Panthers @ Patriots) - 1pt - 13/4 with Betway - Play no lower than 5/2
Boutte has quietly carved out a major role in New England’s passing game, logging over 75% of offensive snaps and already producing 147 yards and a touchdown in three games.
He’s been used as a perimeter and downfield option, averaging more than 16 yards per reception, while also seeing consistent red-zone involvement.
With defenses focusing attention on veteran receivers, Boutte’s speed and deep-threat profile give him a clear path to another score.
In a matchup against a secondary that has already conceded multiple passing touchdowns, his upside at longer odds makes him a compelling anytime-TD play.
You can find 100s more Positive Expected Value for this weekend's NFL matches here.
