The NFL comes to Ireland for the first time in regular season history and we've picked out three best bets from our Positive Expected Value tool.
How does Positive Expected Value (EV) betting work?
When bookmakers set betting lines, they estimate the likelihood of each outcome.
Value Bets, our positive EV tool, leverages advanced AI to perform 100 million projections each week and monitors 125 million live price changes daily. This enables it to identify bets that have a higher probability of winning than what the lines suggest. Shown below are the bets with the most promising projected payouts (or expected values) for the NFL Ireland Game between the Minnesota Vikings and Pittsburgh Steelers.
Jordan Nailor (Vikings) - Over 1.5 Receptions - 1/1 with Sky Bet and Paddy Power
Nailor has quietly been involved early in the season, pulling in seven catches across Weeks 1–3 and averaging over two grabs per game.
His 90%+ snap share in that span shows the Vikings trust him on the field, and he drew five targets last week with Carson Wentz under centre.
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Pittsburgh is giving up 246.7 passing yards per game, one of the highest marks in the league, and with defensive attention naturally flowing toward Justin Jefferson, the underneath looks should be there.
Our Expected Value tool has this bet priced up closer to odds of 4/6, so the 1/1 available provides just under 20% of Positive Expected Value.
14:30 Sunday - Minnesota Vikings vs Pittsburgh Steelers
DK Metcalf (Steelers) - Anytime Touchdown Scorer - 19/10 with William Hill
Metcalf has wasted no time making an impact in Pittsburgh, finding the end zone twice in his first three games with Aaron Rodgers.
The Steelers have been quick to lean on him as their primary red-zone option, thriving on back-shoulder and fade routes.
Against a Brian Flores defence that relies heavily on blitz pressure and single coverage, Rodgers is likely to take his shots with his most trusted contested-catch weapon.
Our Expected Value tool has this bet's probability of winning at 43.44% so the odds of 19/10 available with William Hill provide 25.98% of Positive Expected Value.
Jordan Addison (Vikings) - Anytime Touchdown Scorer - 16/5 with BetMGM and Virgin Bet
Back from suspension, Addison slides straight into his WR2 role opposite Jefferson, where he’s been highly productive since entering the league.
He already owns 19 career receiving touchdowns, ranking among the NFL’s most reliable red-zone wideouts over the past two years.
This is a perfect spot too: the Steelers have surrendered a WR touchdown in every game this season (five total in three weeks).
With defensive coverage tilted toward Jefferson, Addison often benefits from single matchups on the perimeter.
Our EV tool has this bet priced up closer to 15/8, so the 16/5 available with Bet MGM and Virgin Bet provides a juicy 46.66% of Positive Expected Value. We would recommend playing this bet at any odds over 5/2.
0.75pt Play on Jordan Addison - Anytime Touchdown Scorer vs Steelers
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