We've used our Positive Expected Value tool to pick out five of the highest value plays for Sunday's NFL Week 7 matchups.
How does Positive Expected Value (EV) betting work?
When bookmakers set betting lines, they estimate the likelihood of each outcome.
Value Bets, our Positive EV Tool available for Oddschecker+ subscribers, leverages advanced AI to perform 100 million projections each week and monitors 125 million live price changes daily. This enables it to identify bets that have a higher probability of winning than what the lines suggest.
Shown below are our five best Anytime Touchdown Bets bets from the Positive Expected Value tool for the Week 7 NFL slate.
Our NFL Expected Value betting tips are 6.78pts in profit for this season so far.
Bet365
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Bet 1: Saquon Barkley — Anytime TD (vs Vikings) - 1 Point
10/11 available with bet365 at the time of publishing.
Barkley remains the Eagles’ main finisher on inside runs and designed goal-line touches. New York still funnels most of its red-zone offence through him, and his ability to break tackles after contact gives him multiple scoring paths even when the line doesn’t create clean lanes.
Minnesota’s run defense has been solid overall but has struggled to contain backs with elite acceleration and vision - exactly Barkley’s strengths.
He’s also used frequently in the passing game near the pylon, giving him extra scoring upside on screens or checkdowns inside the 10.
Our Positive EV tool has the probability of this bet landing at 61.59%, so the odds of 10/11 with bet365 available gives us a Positive EV of 17.58% on this play.
Tip 2: Rome Odunze - Anytime TD (vs Saints) - 1 Point
Available at 6/4 with William Hill at the time of publishing.
Odunze has developed into Chicago’s primary downfield weapon, leading the team in air yards and deep targets while handling consistent red-zone routes.
If the Bears are forced to throw against a Saints defense that typically sells out to stop the run, Odunze’s vertical ability and contested-catch skills make him a prime candidate to score.
New Orleans have shown vulnerability to explosive plays through the air, especially off play-action and double moves - the exact routes Odunze thrives on.
A single deep shot or back-shoulder fade could cash this anytime line.
Our Positive EV tool has the probability of this bet landing at 53.42%, so the odds of 6/4 with William Hill available gives us a Positive EV of 33.55% on this play.
Tip 3: Jake Ferguson - Anytime TD (vs Commanders) - 1 Point
Available at 2/1 with William Hill at the time of publishing
Ferguson has quietly become one of Dallas’ most trusted red-zone weapons, leading all Cowboys receivers in targets inside the 10-yard line this season.
His chemistry with Dak Prescott in play-action and scramble drills makes him a go-to option when the field tightens. Washington’s defense has been vulnerable to tight ends in scoring areas, often struggling with zone assignments and linebacker coverage near the goal line.
William Hill
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Ferguson’s size, hands, and short-area separation give him multiple routes to a touchdown in this matchup.
Our Positive EV tool has the probability of this bet landing at 45..7%, so the odds of 2/1 with William Hill available gives us a Positive EV of 37.1% on this play.
Tip 4: Kayshon Boutte - Anytime TD (vs Titans) - 1 Point
Available at 11/4 with Paddy Power at the time of publishing
Boutte has carved out a growing role as a perimeter deep threat, where one missed assignment can instantly turn into six points.
Tennessee’s secondary has allowed explosive WR plays all season, particularly on posts and go routes - exactly the areas where Boutte wins.
While he isn’t a target-volume monster, his average depth of target and snap count in scoring situations give him legitimate upside at longer odds.
In a game where the defense may stack the box, Boutte’s speed and vertical threat could be the difference on one well-timed shot downfield.
Our Positive EV tool has the probability of this bet landing at 39.42%, so the odds of 11/4 with Paddy Power available gives us a Positive EV of 47.83% on this play.
Tip 5: Jalen Coker - Anytime TD (vs New York Jets) - 0.5 Points
Available at 5/1 with Ladbrokes at the time of publishing
Jalen Coker’s return couldn’t come at a better time for Carolina. With Tetairoa McMillan likely shadowed by Sauce Gardner, Coker steps into a prime matchup against a Jets secondary that’s leaked production to opposing WR2s all season.
New York has conceded 12 passing touchdowns already, and their No.2 corner Brandon Stephens has been one of the league’s most targeted weak links, allowing a 142.2 passer rating and four TDs in coverage.
Coker quietly impressed as a rookie, turning 23 of his 32 catches into first downs and averaging nearly 15 yards per reception without a single drop.
The Panthers’ confidence in him - shown when they moved on from Adam Thielen - suggests he’ll reclaim a full role immediately.
Given his after-the-catch ability and the Jets’ struggles in that area (6.8 YAC allowed per reception), he’s well-positioned to make an instant impact in the red zone.
Our Positive EV tool has the probability of this bet landing at 33.56%, so the odds of 5/1 with Ladbrokes available gives us a Positive EV of 101.36% on this play.
