The EV Eagle is back with five value picks from tonight's NBA.
The EV Eagle has landed on Oddschecker!
In this new daily tipping series, the EV Eagle picks out their best bets from our Positive Expected Value tool, one of the premium tools available to Oddschecker+ subscribers.
In today's article, the Eagle has picked out five of the best EV bets from tonight's NBA.
How does Positive Expected Value (EV) betting work?
When bookmakers set betting lines, they estimate the likelihood of each outcome.
Value Bets, our Positive EV Tool available for Oddschecker+ subscribers, leverages advanced AI to perform 100 million projections each week and monitors 125 million live price changes daily. This enables it to identify bets that have a higher probability of winning than what the lines suggest.
Grizzlies vs Timberwolves
Tip 1: Naz Reid – Over 2.5 Assists vs Grizzlies – 1.5pts
21/20 with Ladbrokes
72% AI probability, 49% odds implied probability, 50% Expected Value
The Timberwolves big man is a strong shout to record 3+ assists tonight, having hit the line in six of his last seven games while averaging 4 assists per game. He landed it in both outings without Mike Conley and now faces a Memphis side that concedes more assists to centers than any team in the NBA.
Tip 2: Santi Aldama – Under 15.5 Points vs Timberwolves – 1pt
4/5 with BetVictor
66% AI Implied probability, 55% odds implied probability, 20% Expected Value
Aldama draws a brutal matchup tonight and has only cleared this line in 3 of his last 10 games. The T-Wolves rank top 3 defensively in points and assists allowed to opposing PFs - Aldama will struggle against Rudy Gobert, McDaniels, and Jalen Randle. He’s NEVER cleared this line vs this team.
Tip 3: Donte DiVincenzo – Over 14.5 Points vs Memphis – 1pt
11/10 with BetMGM
52% AI probability, 47% implied probability, 11% Expected Value
Memphis has consistently struggled defending point guards, allowing the 3rd most points per game to the position. DiVincenzo is aggressive offensively, and he has shown recently that he isn't afraid to shoot.
He has hit this line in 7 of his last 10 games.
As long as he plays his normal minutes, the matchup alone puts him in position to reach it.
BetMGM UK
Cavaliers vs Bulls
Tip 4: DeAndre Hunter – Under 15.5 Points vs Cavaliers – 1pt
4/5 with SpreadEX
65% AI probability, 56% implied probability, 18% Expected Value
Hunter has struggled offensively in December, hitting just 35.3% from the field and 22.2% from three over his last five games. He’s averaging 11.0 points per game and plays a secondary role in the Cavaliers’ offense, making it unlikely he’ll see enough touches to reach 15.5 points.
Even after hitting 15 once this month, his shooting woes and limited role make this a solid under pick.
Tip 5: Jaylon Tyson – Over 12.5 Points vs Bulls – 1pt
20/23 with Unibet
60% AI Probability, 53% odds probability, 12% Expected Value
With Mobley out, Tyson will continue to be relied upon whether he starts or comes off the bench. In games with 30+ minutes this season, he has cleared this line in 9 of 11 times. He has gone over this line in 7 of his last 10 games. Chicago’s defense has been giving up a lot of catch-and-shoot opportunities recently, ranking 5th highest in the league over the last five games.
