Our predictions for the 2023 World Darts Championship focus on betting value in the second quarter and the nationality of the winner markets.
PDC World Darts Championship
Michael van Gerwen is the 13/5 favourite to win the 2023 PDC World Championship. PDC Order of Merit leader Gerwyn Price is second at 6/1, while recent first-time major winner Michael 'Bully Boy' Smith is rated third likeliest to emerge victorious at the Alexandra Palace (15/2).
Smith is the subject of the first of our two betting tips for the tournament, which kicks off on Thursday 15th December. The final will take place on Tuesday 3rd January.
Michael Smith to Win Quarter Two
There is no doubt Michael Smith has been given a tough draw, with rising star Luke Humphries, Dave Chisnall and Joe Cullen among those in his quarter.
However, given the Bully Boy’s recent form I expect him to make it past any of those players and so a stand-out price of 9/4 to win the second quarter at Coral vs 7/4 in places is too good to pass up.
Smith is a two-time finalist at the World Championships (2019 & 2022). He won his first major title last month at the Grand Slam in his ninth major final, beating Nathan Aspinall 16-5.
In terms of betting value, he has the second longest price of the quarter favourites because of the form of Humphries (11/1 outright winner), who has climbed to 5th on the PDC Order of Merit.
| Quarter | Favourite | Best Price | Worst Price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gerwyn Price | 13/8 | 11/10 |
| 2 | Michael Smith | 9/4 | 7/4 |
| 3 | Peter Wright | 11/4 | 2/1 |
| 4 | Michael van Gerwen | 10/11 | 8/13 |
Humphries has been a quarter-finalist at the World Championship in three of the last four years but has never reached the semi-finals. Chisnall, third favourite in Smith's quarter, has been to 11 PDC World Championships and only once made the semi-finals in 2021.
Nationality of Winner – Dutch
Our interest in this as a selection stems from both the obvious prospects of three-time winner van Gerwen and the pricing of the ‘Nationality of Winner’ market.
An English winner is a surprising short price favourite at 15/8, despite only Smith and Humphries featuring in the top eight favourites for the tournament.
| Selection | Best Price | Worst Price |
|---|---|---|
| English | 15/8 | 6/4 |
| Dutch | 9/4 | 15/8 |
| Welsh | 9/2 | 10/3 |
A Welsh winner is probably a better bet at 9/2 (worst price 10/3) given the dual hopes of Price and Jonny Clayton, but a Dutch winner is where we see the real value in the market.
If you fancy the chances of the ‘Green Machine’ van Gerwen to win the whole thing at 13/5, by extension you should be interested in taking 9/4 for a Dutch winner with both Coral and Betfred.
For a small reduction in the outright price for MvG, this gets you onside with the likes of Danny Noppert, Dirk van Duijvenbode and Raymond van Barneveld – as well as van Gerwen.
Noppert (33/1) won this year's UK Open and reached the semi-final of the World Matchplay. The 30-year-old van Duijvenbode fell to Price in the final of the 2022 World Series of Darts Finals, while van Barneveld, 55, rolled back the years to make the semis at the Grand Slam last month.
