Using expected goals (xG) data, Infogol’s Jake Osgathorpe picks out the best bets from across the weekend’s Premier League action.
15:00 Saturday
Infogol’s Jake Osgathorpe (@JAKEOZZ) again selects his best bets from across the weekend’s Premier League action, using expected goals (xG) as his guide.
Crystal Palace vs West Brom
Crystal Palace slumped to a heavy defeat at Tottenham last weekend, going down 4-1 in another poor performance from Roy Hodgson’s side.
Not only did they again look vulnerable at the back, but their attack looked non-existent even after the introduction of talisman Wilfried Zaha at half-time.
The underlying numbers in attack this season have been terrible.
Only once in their last 15 Premier League matches have they racked up more than 1.00 expected goals for (xGF).
In fact, over that period no team has averaged fewer xGF per game than Palace (0.63), with even Sheffield United being more threatening on a game by game basis (0.86).
Over that 15-game stretch, no team has been worst defensively either, with Palace allowing 1.99 expected goals against (xGA) per game.
They really are playing like a team we would expect to see in a relegation battle. Fortunately for Palace they have points on the board.
Despite remaining eight points from safety and having won just one of their last five, West Brom are trending in a positive direction under Sam Allardyce, finally.
A goalless draw with Newcastle was a huge missed opportunity, but they created enough chances to warrant the win (xG: WBA 1.87 – 0.70 NEW).
The Baggies have in fact ‘won the xG battle’ in four of their last five league games, limiting their opponents to less than 1.00 xG in three of those, so the signs are there that they are improving.
The data shows that these two sides are heading on opposite trajectories, with Palace getting worst and West Brom actually improving, so I cannot be having the hosts here.
That means I want an improving West Brom onside. They are a tad too short for my liking in the Double Chance market at 4/6, but the 6/4 about West Brom draw no bet catches my eye.
If there is to be a winner in this game I think it will be the Baggies, but the draw no bet gives us our money back if this finishes in a draw, which isn’t beyond the realms of possibility given the low number of goals that are expected.
2pts West Brom Draw no Bet at 6/4
12:00 Sunday
Southampton vs Brighton
Southampton beat bottom side Sheffield United last weekend, but followed that up with a 5-2 loss at the Etihad in midweek at the hands of Manchester City.
While that result was to be expected against the champions-elect, it does mean that the Saints have now lost eight of their last 10 league matches.
Southampton aren’t creating anywhere near enough chances in games to warrant wins and that is why their results have worsened.
For perspective, only five teams possess a worst expected goals for (xGF) process than Southampton (1.14 xGF per game), with two of those being the current bottom two.
Fortunately for Southampton, at home they are incredibly strong defensively.
Only Brighton, Chelsea and Manchester City have allowed fewer expected goals against (xGA) per home game than Southampton this season.
Brighton are now winless in five after a 2-1 home defeat to Leicester, a result that means they are now outside of the bottom three on goal difference alone.
Brighton have won four of their five league games on the road this term, but rank as a bottom half away team according to xP, averaging 1.26 xGF and 1.42 xGA per game.
Having said that, they have been extremely sound defensively in three of their last four away matches, which included trips to Leeds and Liverpool, allowing 1.03 xGA per game in that time.
Since defeat to Manchester City at the Etihad, only Chelsea have been better defensively than Brighton according to expected goals, and given their predicament and need for points, they could well set-up to be more cautious.
Southampton’s struggles in attack, coupled with their strong defence at St. Mary’s backs up the fact that this game could be a dull one, with few goals expected.
There doesn’t look to be value in the goals market, with under 2.5 goals as short as 4/7, so given how closely matched these teams are in this setting, the draw stands out.
1pt Draw at 21/10
