20:00 Friday

Neil Macdonald has recommended a 1.95 (20/21) Bet Builder for the Friday night Premier League opener between Burnley and Manchester City.

Bet Builder Tips Today | Friday 11th August

Burnley, who dominated the Championship last season by accumulating 101 points under the leadership of former Man City legend Vincent Kompany, could not have asked for a more formidable opponent to open their Premier League campaign. To make matters worse, they are likely to face a fired-up opponent, still reeling from their disappointing Community Shield defeat to Arsenal.

Burnley vs Manchester City Bet Builder Tips

My Bet Builder for Burnley vs Manchester City can be backed at 1.95 on Bet365 (1pt stake).

Advised Bet Builder

  • Man City to win
  • Erling Haaland to score

 

Leg 1 Man City to win

  • Manchester City, still smarting from their recent defeat in the Community Shield against Arsenal, are eager to make a strong comeback with a decisive victory.
  • Under Pep Guardiola's leadership, Manchester City have faced Burnley 16 times, emerging victorious in 15 of those encounters. With an astounding goal difference of 525 in their favour, this has become one of the most lopsided rivalries in recent English football history.
  • The last time these two teams clashed was in the FA Cup last season, where Manchester City triumphed with a resounding 60 victory, even without deploying their “Gala XI”. It's also worth noting the dominance City has exhibited against newly promoted teams. In their last ten encounters with such opponents, they have secured nine wins, netting an impressive 31 goals while conceding only five.
  • Burnley clinched 1st place in the Championship last season, earning automatic promotion to the top tier. However, it's important to recognize that their performance in chance creation was more modest, ranking only 7th in terms of expected goals (xG).
  • With such an attacking overperformance last season I won’t be surprised to see a negative regression in front of goal this season.
  • Even though this is an away game for Manchester City, there's little cause for concern. No team in the league has performed better on the road against bottomsix sides (assuming Burnley falls into that category). In their last ten such encounters, Manchester City has secured nine victories out of ten, netting an impressive 26 goals while conceding only four.

Leg 2: Erling Haaland to score

  • The prolific Norwegian striker has hit a rare dry spell in front of goal, failing to find the back of the net in his last six competitive matches for Manchester City. While he's still getting into dangerous areas and creating chances (racking up 1.73 expected goals during the drought), this marks Haaland's longest goalless run since joining City.
  • Haaland's appetite for destruction was on full display last season when he ravaged the league’s bottomfeeders, scoring an eye-watering 20 goals against the league's bottom eight teams.
  • When these two met last season (FA Cup) Haaland got 64 minutes and scored twice off roughly 0.92 total xG.
  • Haaland's scoring prowess travels well to any stadium. While boasting a higher per 90 goal rate (1.4) at the Etihad last season, his 0.89 xG per 90 away is nearly identical to his home xG dominance.