Read our Italy vs Turkey prediction with betting tips, odds, and expected lineups ahead of the clash. Get the latest match insights and bet builder advice.
Italy vs Turkey Match Summary
Competition | UEFA Nations League |
|---|---|
Match Date | Monday 5 October 2026 |
Match Time | 19:45 UK time |
Venue (City, Stadium) | Bologna, Renato Dall'Ara |
Italy host Turkey at Renato Dall'Ara in Bologna on Monday night in the UEFA Nations League, and the Italy vs Turkey betting odds make the hosts 2/5 favourites with Coral.
Italy have recovered well from losing their opener, and Roberto Mancini has warned that underestimating Turkey would be the "biggest mistake". Giacomo Raspadori is the latest name on a lengthy injury list.
Vincenzo Montella says Turkey are in Nations League A for the first time, yet three straight defeats leave them bottom of the group and without Hakan Çalhanoglu or Kenan Yildiz.
The previous meetings record reads three Italy wins, three draws and no Turkey victories. Oddly, Italy have drawn their last 3 home matches against Turkiye in all competitions.
Italy vs Turkey Form
Italy lost their Nations League opener but have taken four points from their last two outings, most recently coming from behind against France when Alessandro Bastoni cancelled out Michael Olise's strike. That was a proper response. Backing an Italy win has been profitable on seven occasions across their last ten fixtures against all opponents, and Nicolo Barella is pushing for a recall.
Turkey arrive without a point from their Nations League campaign, the latest blow a 3-0 beating by a Kevin De Bruyne-inspired Belgium. They sit bottom of the group and the pressure is building. Arda Güler remains their main outlet and keeps finding the target regularly, having fired in three or more shots in each of his last three caps.
Italy vs Turkey Lineups & Team News
Injuries & Suspensions
Italy: F. Mane (Injured/out), J. Ekhator (Injured/out), B. Cristante (Injured/out), F. Dimarco (Injured/out), N. Zaniolo (Injured/out), G. Raspadori (Injured/out), M. Dagasso (Injured/out)
Turkey: H. Çalhanoglu (Injured/out), K. Yildiz (Injured/out), M. Müldür (Injured/out), C. Uzun (Injured/doubtful)
Italy
Giacomo Raspadori is the latest name on an Italy injury list that already includes Cristante, Dimarco and Zaniolo. Mancini could recall veteran midfielder Nicolo Barella to the starting XI, and no further changes are expected after a strong showing against France. The probable Italy vs Turkey lineups put Barella in the engine room with Tonali and Frattesi, with Kean and the two Espositos forming the front three.
Turkey
Turkey will check on Can Uzun after he missed the Belgium game with a knock, while midfielder Salih Özcan should return to the starting XI. Çalhanoglu, Yildiz and Müldür are all out, which strips a lot of quality from the middle of the pitch. Güler and Akgün are the probable pair behind Baris Alper Yilmaz.
Italy vs Turkey Predicted Lineup
Italy
Formation: 4-3-3 (probable)
Predicted Starting Lineup: G. Donnarumma; M. Kayode, G. Scalvini, A. Bastoni, R. Calafiori; N. Barella, D. Frattesi, S. Tonali; S. Esposito, F. P. Esposito, M. Kean (probable XI)
Turkey
Formation: 3-4-2-1 (probable)
Predicted Starting Lineup: U. Çakir; Z. Çelik, M. Demiral, A. Bardakci; O. Aydin, S. Özcan, B. Elmaz, I. Yüksek; A. Güler, Y. Akgün; B. A. Yilmaz (probable XI)
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Italy vs Turkey Key Stats & Match Facts
Italy have been drawing at both half-time and full-time in their last 3 home matches against Turkiye in all competitions.
Italy have seen under 2.5 goals in their last 3 home matches against Turkiye in all competitions.
There have been 10+ shots on target in 3 of Italy's last 3 matches (UEFA Nations League A).
Arda Güler has attempted 3+ shots in 3 of his last 3 apps (UEFA Nations League A).
Arda Güler has won 3+ fouls in 3 of his last 3 apps (UEFA Nations League A).
Italy vs Turkey Prediction & Best Bets
Our prediction: Italy 2-0 Turkey. Our Italy vs Turkey prediction backs the hosts to keep a clean sheet, because they create far more than this weakened Turkey side and the visitors are missing pivotal players in Çalhanoglu and Yildiz. Turkey are out at 7/1 with Paddy Power, and on this evidence that price looks about right.
Best Bets
Back Giorgio Scalvini Over 0.5 in the Player Shots market. Italy have racked up a healthy shot count in each of their last three fixtures in the UEFA Nations League A, and our Italy vs Turkey best bets start with a centre-back who gets forward for set pieces. Scalvini is in the probable XI, and against a side camped deep he only needs one sight of goal.
Back Italy 3-0 in the Correct Score market. This is the bigger-priced extension of our clean-sheet call. Turkey's creative options are thin without Çalhanoglu and Yildiz, and if Italy turn their shot volume into goals, a commanding home win is well within reach.
Italy vs Turkey Bet Builder
Our Italy vs Turkey bet builder tips combine an Italy win, Gianluca Scamacca to score anytime, both teams to score and Ismail Yuksek to be shown a card.
Italy are 2/5 with Betfred for good reason. Turkey have lost every Nations League outing so far, while Italy have taken a win and a draw since their opening defeat.
Gianluca Scamacca is the wildcard leg. He is not in the probable XI, so this one leans on him getting minutes as an attacking focal point to finish the chances Italy create.
This is the alternative script to our clean-sheet call. Italy have fired in 29 or more shots across their past three outings in the competition, and games that open usually produce goals at both ends.
Discipline has been an issue for the visitors too, with three or more cards shown against them in each of their past three matches in the competition. Yuksek starts on the left of midfield in the probable XI, which puts him right in the firing line.
At the time of writing, this bet builder pays a best price of 23/2 and is as short as 19/2 elsewhere.
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Bet builder odds correct at time of publishing.
Italy vs Turkey Talking Points
Mancini called the four-match autumn schedule "too tiring", yet the word from the camp is that Barella's recall is the only likely change. He also wants Barella to score more for his country, so a start here gives the midfielder an obvious platform. Montella, meanwhile, has hit back at "illogical criticisms", and another defeat would only crank up the heat. Polish referee Szymon Marciniak takes charge, and with both Güler and Baris Alper Yilmaz picking up bookings in two of their past three caps, Turkey's discipline is a live issue.
Italy vs Turkey Predictions FAQs
When is the Italy vs Turkey UEFA Nations League game?
The match kicks off at 19:45 UK time on Monday 5 October 2026.
Where is Italy vs Turkey being played?
The match is being played at Renato Dall'Ara in Bologna.
What competition is Italy vs Turkey in?
Italy vs Turkey is a UEFA Nations League fixture.
Disclaimer
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