Today's Football Tips: Wednesday Best Bets from Neil Macdonald

Ligue 1 Tips - Lyon vs Nantes

Both teams to score: Yes at 1.75 with Bet365 - 1.5 points

• Lyon have won their last two games 'to nil', but I'm not sure they've improved defensively to warrant another clean sheet here.
• In those games against Monaco and Toulouse, they gave up a combined 34 shots on their goal and a 3.7 expected goals against (xGA)
• They also still rank 15th for non-penalty expected goals against (xGA), compared to being the 7th best last season.
• Home games at the Groupama Stadium have been quite fun for the neutral; we've seen an average of 3.25 goals and 3.87 expected goals (xG) per 90 minutes.

• Lyon have been unlucky in front of goal; from these Ligue 1 home games, they have generated a healthy 2.03 expected goals (xG) per 90 minutes but have only scored 1.25. I’d expect that to regress to the mean as the season progresses.
• Caretaker Pierre Sage will take control for this game again; he’s taken charge of 4 games so far, and his side have averaged 1.91 expected goals against (xGA) per game.
• Like Lyon, Nantes have been weak defensively; they rank 17th for non-penalty expected goals against (xGA) and have conceded 15 goals in their last 7 road games this season, so a clean sheet from the Canaries doesn’t look likely either.
• Like Lyon, Nantes have been better in attack than results suggest; they are averaging 1.46 expected goals (xG) per 90 minutes but are only converting 1.19.
• They have had a tough run of games, having faced Brest, PSG, and Nice, but have done well against the weaker defensive sides. Toulouse, Lorient, and Clermont are on a similar defensive level to Lyon this season, and they found the net in all three of those games.
• Both teams will view this as a winnable match, so I don’t expect a negative approach from either side. Hopefully, this means another entertaining game with plenty of chances at both ends.