Today's Football Tips: Saturday Long Shot from Mark O’Haire

Long Shot – Jonas Wind Anytime Goalscorer (Wolfsburg vs Koln) and Brian Brobbey Anytime Goalscorer (Heracles vs Ajax) Double at 5/1 (6.00) with bet365. 

Two wins in 12 have seen Wolfsburg slide down the Bundesliga standings but Niko Kovac’s crew have a good opportunity to table top honours on Saturday when relegation-threatened Koln come to town. The visitors’ only away victory came at rock-bottom Darmstadt with the Billy Goats suffering six defeats in their nine games as guests.

Koln’s problems extend to both boxes. Timo Schultz’s team head to the Volkswagen Arena without their two leading forwards (Davie Selke and Mark Uth) with Luca Waldschmidt also absent through injury, whilst the Billy Goats are also conceding a massive 2.14 Expected Goals (xGA) per-game thus far – the worst figure across Europe’s top five leagues. 

With Koln conceding goals and chances freely, Wolfsburg’s main marksman JONAS WIND has more than enough potential to take advantage. The Danish ace has nine goals in 18 Bundesliga appearances this season, six of which have arrived at the Volkswagen Arena; the 24-year-old scored twice in the reverse match-up and is a nice price to notch again here.

Elsewhere, John van 't Schip has steered Ajax into Champions League qualification contention following a remarkable turnaround. The Amsterdam giants had hit rock-bottom in late October, picking up only five points from their opening eight encounters before van 't Schip came into the club and inspired an immediate improvement (W8-D2-L0).

Ajax are understandably short-priced favourites for their trip to Heracles on Saturday evening yet the visitors’ in-form goalscorer BRIAN BROBBEY again looks undervalued in the Anytime Goalscorer market. The 21-year-old has notched in each of his last five fixtures, scoring in nine of his 17 Eredivisie outings overall, and grabbing 11 goals in the process.

Brobbey is averaging 0.71 goals per-90, as well as 0.82 Expected Goals (xG) per-90 and is facing a Heracles rearguard that’s shipped 12 goals in three previous home fixtures against the top-three, allows 2.28 goals per-game on average across the division, and has managed a solitary shutout in the Eredivisie this term.