Luton vs Nottingham Forest

Football betting analyst Mark O’Haire is back with his latest Premier League predictions across this weekend’s four remaining matches.

You can also read his 9/2 long shot bet for this weekend here.

Alfie Doughty Over 0.5 Assists

Advised Bet: 1pt @ 9/2 Unibet

Alfie Doughty is enjoying an excellent debut campaign at Premier League level. The former Charlton youngster forced his way into Luton’s first XI in September and has kept his place on the left of the Hatters’ preferred 3-4-2-1 system with a series of electric and energetic displays, whilst his delivery from open play and set-pieces has also been heavily praised.

The Welshman has already provided seven assists (putting him alongside the likes of Julian Alvarez and Phil Foden), whilst no top-flight player has delivered more crosses than Doughty (or come close to his tally). He’s also one of the division's most regular corner takers, as well as having more touches and more minutes than any of Luton's outfield players.

Doughty averages 0.23 Expected Assists (xA) per-90 and his creative role in a free-scoring side suggests the 9/2 on Unibet (5.50) to give an assist against Forest on Saturday is a little too big to ignore considering the opposition. Nottingham Forest have conceded a league-high 17 goals from set-pieces with new boss Nuno Espirito Santo unable to stem the bleeding since his arrival.

Fulham vs Tottenham

Joao Palhinha Anytime Card

Advised Bet: 1pt @ 17/10 BetVictor

Fulham have proven a tough nut to crack at Craven Cottage this season. Marco Silva’s men have tabled top honours in four of their six home fixtures against top-half teams with Aston Villa and Manchester United only escaping with maximum points by the narrowest margins; the Cottagers are therefore unlikely to be straightforward opposition for Spurs on Saturday. 

Midfield mammoth Joao Palhinha has been a major influence for Fulham with the Portuguese star a league-leader for an array of defensive metrics, includes tackles. However, the physical 28-year-old has been a regular in referees’ notebooks too – no Premier League player has collected more yellow cards than Palhinha’s 11 this term.

Last season, Palhinha racked up 14 bookings, meaning the midfield shield has now received 25 EPL cautions in just 56 starts since arriving in English football, averaging a card every 199 minutes. BetVictor make Palhinha a 17/10 (2.70) chance to add to his tally on Saturday evening, a price that implies just a 37% chance, suggesting value in the odds on offer.

West Ham vs Aston Villa

Ollie Watkins Anytime Goalscorer

Advised Bet: 1pt @ 13/8 Sky Bet

Ollie Watkins scored before being taken off with a cut knee during Aston Villa’s impressive 4-0 Europa Conference League victory over Ajax on Thursday night, though head coach Unai Emery poured cold water over fears the England international could be set for a spell on the sidelines, suggesting the striker could be fit for Sunday’s Premier League trip to West Ham.

Should Watkins feature from the off at the London Stadium, the 13/8 on Sky Bet (2.63) in the Anytime Goalscorer market is well worth a look. The Villa star has 23 goals in 35 club starts this season, including eight goals in his most recent 10 tussles. When playing away, Watkins has fired home 13 goals in 19 starts, including striking five times in his last three road trips. 

With West Ham conceding the second-most home shots in the EPL, the Villa forwardline should be well-capable of getting amongst the goals, and Watkins’ record of 0.58 goals per-90 and 0.52 Expected Goals (xG) per-90 when excluding penalties deserves enormous respect. As is his tally of 23 goals in 35 games under Emery against non-Big Six opposition.