Euro 2024

Excitement and anticipation continues to build for Euro 2024 as the 17th edition of the European Championship finals edges ever closer. 

Since its inaugural tournament in 1966, 10 national teams have been crowned kings of Europe with Germany, Spain, France and Italy combining to take top honours in 10 (63%) of the 16 previous renewals. 

Since Euro ’96, the average price of a European Championship winner is 22/1 but of course Greece’s unthinkable triumph at Euro 2004 is bang out of sync.

Exclude that competition and the average winner odds are just 7/1 across the remaining six competitions with four of the six champions offered between 3/1 and 13/2 quotes.

England came ever so close three years ago, but you must go back to 1984 for the last time a host nation delivered outright glory at the Euros.

Nevertheless, a host nation has made at least the semi-final stage in eight of the last 10 European Championships, an encouraging omen for a rejuvenated Germany side under Julian Nagelsmann’s watch.

Meanwhile, pre-tournament betting since Euro ’92 has also tended to be reasonably accurate with favourites or co-favourites finding their way to the semi-finals or better in seven of eight examples - five went the distance with two ultimately walking away with the Henri Delaunay Trophy. England again falling short in 2021.

However, the Euros has a history of producing surprise results - Denmark getting off the beach in 1992, Czech Republic reaching the final in 1996, Greece!

Even Portugal were unfancied despite the presence of Cristiano Ronaldo in 2016, and the diversity of previous winners is extraordinary when you drill into the history of the competition.

Since 1984, eight sides have been crowned in nine editions of the Euros with another seven different nations reaching the semi-finals, highlighting the openness around the outright market.

In fact, a 20/1 shot (or larger) has reached the final-four in each of the last eight renewals with the average price of a semi-finalist coming in at 20/1 exactly.

It’s therefore a fascinating puzzle to try and unpack and I’ve attempted to outline my working behind a couple of outright selections that I feel represent value at the prices.

Euro 2024 Predictions

Joint-favourites England 4/1 (Betfred) and France 4/1 (bet365) take up at least 40% of the Outright Winner market share and whilst both nations command enormous respect, I’m happy to look elsewhere.

Why? Well, should the draw play out to expectation, the two old rivals look set to face-off on a collision course in the semis. Instead, I prefer a punt on PORTUGAL (8/1 Star Sports or Midnite) who should be operating on the opposite side of the knockout draw if they perform as predicted and top Group F. 

The pathway to Berlin is potentially generous too with the top dogs of Group F avoiding a fellow group winner until the semi-final stage (likely to be Germany or Spain). 

Yet the schedule is only the amuse-bouche for Portugal backers. The Selecao have the squad to rival the best teams on the planet with world class quality and depth across almost every position. The 2016 champions have also appeared revitalised under Roberto Martinez’s watch with a more proactive and attack-minded approach.

Critics will question Martinez’s tactical acumen to navigate the knockout phase following a questionable stint with Belgium, but the Spaniard has a much more rounded side at his disposal here and the experience of taking a team to a bronze medal at the World Cup can be considered a net positive. Portugal can be serious challengers.  

“A dark horse is a previously lesser-known team that emerges to prominence in a situation, especially in a competition involving multiple rivals, that is unlikely to succeed but has a fighting chance, unlike the underdog who is expected to lose.”

The definition of a dark horse can be muddied going into major international tournaments, but the starting point to be considered a contender in this bracket tends to be the 40/1 mark. Well, I have my eyes on a prize that’s double that mark.

Step forward, AUSTRIA (85/1 AK Bets). Das Team have enjoyed a remarkable resurgence following the game-changing appointment of Ralf Rangnick in April 2022. The Alpine outfit finished only one point behind Belgium en-route to Euro 2024, winning six of their eight qualifiers and posting an excellent W11-D2-L1 return under the former Man Utd manager. 

Now Austria have been drawn in a devilishly difficult pool, yet this team pose plenty of threat themselves for the likes of France, Netherlands and Poland with their suffocating press, full-throttle and supremely organised approach providing opponents with plenty of problems. Germany and Italy have already been downed under Rangnick’s tutorship.

A crystal-clear identity and playing style that suits a squad stacked with major league experience and a Red Bull background gives this group a punchers chance, even without the injured trio of David Alaba, Sasa Kaladjzic and Xavier Schlager. I expect this Austria side will outrun their outright odds and cause a real stir this summer.

Euro 2024 Betting Tips

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