England to Win 

England have been well below-par thus far despite making strong starts to both encounters. Gareth Southgate’s side have tended to toil in the middle fixture of the group-stage but still boast an excellent W6-D3-L1 return from 10 group-stage matches at major tournaments under his tutorship and the Three Lions are worthy favourites.

Slovenia certainly won’t be easy meat – the underdogs have lost just twice in 23 stretching back two years, scoring in each of their last 14. Slovenia have produced two organised efforts, can call upon a top-class quality in both boxes and even overcame Portugal back in a March friendly international, highlighting their potential. 

Even so, a positive England response – and closer to a 90-minute performance from the Three Lions – should prove decisive. England have posted W10-D4-L1 in competitive contests going back to the start of the World Cup in Qatar with their only reverse arriving in the quarter-final clash against France. 

Under 3.5 Goals

Seven of England’s past nine victories have seen fewer than four goals scored, whilst the Three Lions have now scored more than twice in just five of their most recent 17 showdowns. That includes routs against Malta and North Macedonia, as well as 3-1 triumphs over Scotland and Italy, plus a 3-0 victory over Bosnia-Herzegovina.

Taking the Under 3.5 Goals option alongside an England success gives the 1-0, 2-0, 3-0 and 2-1 correct scores onside. A chunky 11 of Slovenia’s most recent 15 meaningful matches have seen a maximum of four strikes – the games that breached that high line came against Northern Ireland, Serbia and San Marino.

Adam Cerin Over 1.5 Fouls 

England are the most fouled team at the tournament on a per-game basis, drawing 16 per-game, and so Adam Cerin has to appeal in the foul markets. 

The Panathinaikos brings big energy to the Slovenian side, hassling and harrying, and providing a real nuisance for opposition sides in possession. Expect a repeat here.

In Cerin’s first two Euro 2024 fixtures, he’s racked up nine misdemeanours, hitting at least four on each occasion. We’re only looking for the feisty 24-year-old to commit two or more on Tuesday evening.

Benjamin Sesko Over 1.5 Shots 

Andraz Sporar’s lanky strike partner is the world class star of the Slovenian side. Still only 21, and a little rough around the edges at times, Benjamin Sesko came through the famed Red Bull system and already looks at home on the big stage; having scored 14 Bundesliga goals for Leipzig in 2023/24, he’s been Slovenia’s most dangerous outlet.

Sesko has fired over two shots in each of his two fixtures at Euro 2024 and I’ll back the well-fancied forward to repeat that feat against England in Koln.