Austria to Win

These two teams met as recently as March with Austria demolishing Turkey 6-1 in a friendly international. That one-sided match is part of an exceptional run of results for Das Team dating back to September 2022 (W14-D3-L2) as only France and Belgium have managed to collect top honours against the Alpine outfit.

Turkey’s task has been harder following the suspension of captain Hakan Calhanoglu and centre-half Samet Akaydin. However, Abdulkerim Bardakci returns from suspension with Montella’s youthful squad – the Crescent Stars had the second-youngest starting XI on average during the group stage – eager to make amends for March’s horror show.

Turkey certainly possess the tools to unlock almost any opponent, but the Crescent Stars remain defensively vulnerable, inconsistent and erratic, and and will sorely miss their skipper in Leipzig. Austria’s orchestrated, high-octane approach makes their even-money offering a little too big to dismiss. 

Over 2.5 Goals 

Entertainment is expected in Leipzig. Over 2.5 Goals has now landed in eight of Turkey’s last 12 internationals with the Crescent Stars keeping only one clean sheet in nine since Montella arrived in the hot-seat. Their Euro 2024 matches are averaging 3.28 non-penalty Expected Goals (npxG) with Austria’s 2.88 npxG also pointing towards goals.

Austria covered the Overs line themselves in overcoming Poland and the Netherlands, and really ought to have scored against France in their curtain-raising clash. That’s the only blank in 20 for Das Team, although Rangnick’s all-action side haven’t managed to silence any of their last six opponents, keeping clean sheets in just 4/13.

Both teams have a propensity to play hard and lose and the underlying metrics show that only Albania and Georgia have given up a higher npxG figure through the group-stage than both Austria and Turkey. Continue in the same vein on Tuesday night and we should be treated to a high-scoring thriller. 

Stefan Posch Over 1.5 Fouls 

Both teams tend to be happy to get stuck in and considering there is a place in the quarter-finals up for grabs, a scrappy, foul-heavy match-up might be in-store. 

Austria committed more fouls than any side during the group-stages, racking up 49 across their three fixtures. 

Aggressive right-back Stefan Posch has been at the forefront of the all-action Austrian approach, leading the foul count with nine (splits of 3-4-2) and the Bologna man has now committed 2+ fouls in his last six international starts.