Here you can find Mark’s reasoning behind each single part of the bet. 

Draw 

As we reach the business end of a major tournament, the jeopardy increases, leading to a rise in draws. Go back to the beginning of Euro ’96 and a tasty 11/28 (40%) last-eight European Championship ties have ended all-square after 90 minutes – that’s around a 15% increase on the general draw hit-rate across your standard domestic division.

Although neither Luis de la Fuente nor Julian Nagelsmann are the type of coach to curb their attacking instincts regardless of the magnitude of the match, the fact both sides are quoted at odds around the 7/4 (2.75) and 19/10 (2.90) mark highlight the potential for a stalemate. 

With the draw the outsider of the Match Odds options, I’ll happily support it here.

Both Teams To Score

I’ve already highlighted the two teams’ impressive attacking outputs at Euro 2024, as well as alluding to the front-foot approach of the two coaches in charge, and therefore goals could well be on the cards in Stuttgart. Backing Both Teams To Score holds plenty of appeal with the pair scoring 19 goals between them in eight encounters thus far.

The two nations pack plenty of punch in forward areas with the two midfields also catching the eye. However, the duo also share a common weakness in defence; neither side have dispelled pre-tournament concerns about a fragile backline, both individually and collectively, suggesting goals could well be on the agenda in the opener. 

Joshua Kimmich Over 1.5 Tackles

Joshua Kimmich should be a busy boy on Friday night with Nico Williams marauding down Spain’s left-hand side. The Athletic ace has been attracting high tackle numbers from opposition defenders with Croatia and Italy’s right-back attempting seven tackles each and Georgia’s right-back managing five for an average of 6.33 tackles per-game.

Considering the overwhelming numbers here, I’m happy to support Joshua Kimmich to make Over 1.5 Tackles.

Robin Le Normand Over 0.5 Fouls

Spain centre-half Robin Le Normand has committed seven fouls in three Euro 2024 appearances, taking his tally to 12 misdemeanours in his last five starts for La Roja. The Real Sociedad defender likes to break out of the backline to stop opposition attacks at source and that could prove problematic against a fluid Germany attack.

The 27-year-old averaged 1.10 fouls per-game in La Liga and 1.60 fouls per-game in the Champions League this season.