Below are my picks for the match, which are based on what we have seen across the tournament as a whole so far.

Over 1.5 Fabian Ruiz Shots

One value pick throughout the tournament has been Fabian Ruiz shots. With Rodri anchoring the Spain midfield, this gives the two players just ahead of him (likely Ruiz and Olmo due to Pedri’s injury) licence to get forward, and they have both certainly done just that. The pair are equal seventh for shots at the tournament so far, with both having racked up fifteen. For context, that is just two fewer than Harry Kane, and four more than Alvaro Morata. 

At Euro 2024, Ruiz has averaged exactly 3 shots per game, and has started all but one of Spain’s matches at the tournament. His heat map for the tournament shows that he likes to pick up dangerous areas just outside the box, and with England likely to field three centre backs, they may look to restrict Spain, and the likes of Ruiz, to shots from outside the box.

Over 7.5 Match Corners

Both teams tend to have a number of corners for, so I’m hoping that will be the case once again here, especially if it is a tight match.

It will be Spain that influence the corner count here, especially if they have the aforementioned shots from outside the box, which is what I would expect. Their match against France had 10 corners in total,  and I expect this one to follow a similar theme, especially if England were to take the lead.

Lamine Yamal To Have A Shot On Target

Lamine Yamal has had an excellent tournament, defying his age and showing that he is going to be the next big thing. As mentioned above, Morata is likely to play more as a ‘false 9’, bringing others around him into play as opposed to trying to get shots away himself. One of the likely beneficiaries of this is Yamal, who averages 0.8 shots on target per game, despite only playing 70 minutes on average.

Yamal’s shots on target have mostly come in his last three matches too, where he has picked up the mantle following Pedri’s injury. He has had four shots on target in his last three matches, despite facing the likes of France and Germany in that time. His shooting overall has increased massively too - he has registered twelve shots in those last three matches, compared to just four in the three before.

Don’t forget, if Yamal is subbed off, you will be covered by Paddy Power’s Super Sub too, meaning the bet continues with his replacement.

Robin Le Normand To Commit A Foul

Robin Le Normand is likely to return to the starting XI after serving a suspension against France. This is good news for bettors: he has committed a foul in his last five matches, despite only playing 45 minutes against both Germany and Albania. He has totalled 9 fouls at the tournament (the most committed by any player is 12), and averages 2.25 fouls per 90.

Le Normand is likely to be directly up against the likes of Bellingham and Kane - England’s two most fouled players at the tournament, winning 14 and 11 fouls respectively.