Newcastle vs Tottenham Prediction

Last week I was keen to oppose Newcastle – for a couple of reasons, really, but largely due to their very poor away record. But this week, I want to get them onside at the lines and prices against Tottenham and think Newcastle 1.94 off a scratch start is fair enough, really. It’s the same as backing Newcastle in the Draw No Bet market.

The negatives out the way first… they were poor against Southampton on MD1, even before the red card, but they managed to squeak a result. Last week they were better in quite an even game, but got away with one in stoppage-time – an incredibly harsh VAR ruling giving them a point at the Vitality. So they’re a little lucky to have 4 points.

Team news is a little better than last week with Fabian Schar back, and Sandro Tonali is available again – but the former is much more important because a Newcastle backline of Lloyd Kelly, Dan Burn, Emil Krafth and Tino Livramento does not fill you with confidence. Schar coming in certainly helps, and the midfield is working itself out.

So I’m Newcastle +0 at 1.94. Intrigued to see how Spurs do set-up here – because they went with effectively four wingers against Everton - Maddison and Kulusevski functioned as twin attacking midfielders in a Pep Guardiola-style 4-1-4-1 where Bissouma was basically left to handle everything on his own defensively, which he did brilliantly but that’s a gamble taking that sort of approach to Tyneside. 

Newcastle rose to the big occasions at home last season – seven wins from nine at home against top-half opposition – happy to side with them on Sunday.

Newcastle Double Chance 

Newcastle have yet to impress in 2024/25 and will again have to call upon a patched up defence with Schar and Sven Botman still sidelined. However, Eddie Howe’s troops have suffered only three losses in their last 20 home Premier League outings, as well as boasting the fourth-best Expected Points (xP) return during that same sample. 

Tottenham have triumphed only seven times in 20 away EPL ties under Postecoglou, shipping multiple goals in 12 of those 20 tussles. Spurs bagged a solitary success at top-nine teams last term and were stuffed 4-0 at this venue too. I’m therefore happy to oppose the visitors at a relatively short price this weekend.

Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score looks perfectly plausible here with Newcastle scoring in all of their last 20 home Premier League games and Tottenham striking in all bar three of their respective past 20 away matches. The Magpies are averaging a n enormous 2.50 goals per-game in front of their own supporters with Spurs netting 1.85 goals on the road.

Over 4.5 Cards 

Robert Jones has the whistle and the arbiter is one of the Premier League’s most stringent operators. The official has overseen 26 league dates since the beginning of 2023/24 and has produced 4.88 cards and 51.73 Booking Points – he’s covered the Over 4.5 Cards line in 18 (69%) of those contests, suggesting 5+ could be in the offing.

Over 8.5 Corners 

There have been a huge 15 and 17 corners in Newcastle’s opening contests, whilst 68% of the Magpies’ home EPL encounters last term delivered a minimum of nine flag-kicks (10.36 per-game) – Spurs have delivered a similar 15 and 17 corner haul in their first two fixtures with 89% of last season’s away trips hitting 9+ corners (12.69 per-game).