Niall Lyons has five tips for the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship, which finishes at St Andrews on Sunday.
Alfred Dunhill Links Championship
The Alfred Dunhill Links is a difficult event to land as plenty of the field has links form, but that is undoubtedly where to concentrate.
If links form in Ireland or Scotland is missing then it's perhaps worth concentrating on Qatar and Portugal where an abundance of links specialists have made it into the winners' enclosure.
Look down the list of winners here and it's difficult to point out one who didn't have links pedigree. Even Victor Perez, who had recently moved to Scotland before his victory there had appeal.
With the pro am format and three different courses there undoubtedly remains an ounce of luck to landing the winner here and we'll need the weather to fall right on each day for optimum scoring conditions for our selections. For those reasons stakes are usually kept relatively small.
Alfred Dunhill Links Championship Tips
- 1.5pts each-way R.Hojgaard 35/1 (1/5 8) Betfair Sportsbook
- 1pt each-way M.Pavon 75/1 (1/5 8) Betfair Sportsbook
- 0.75pt each-way C.Hill 150/1 (1/5 6) Unibet, BetUK, Livescore, Spreadex, SportingIndex
- 0.75pt each-way J.Dean 175/1 (1/5 8) Paddypower
- 0.75pt each-way D.Brown 200/1 (1/5 6) Unibet, BetUK, Livescore
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Rasmus Hojgaard at 35/1 (Eight Places)
I don't want to invest too heavily in the top of the market and Brooks Koepka was one of the more tempting options but instead I'll opt for someone at a bigger price who has done the job on links only a few weeks ago in the shape of Rasmus Hojgaard.
The Dane has played tremendous all Summer and will be rewarded with a PGA Tour card in a couple of months. His consistency on this tour this year has been admirable and he has responded extremely well to missing out on last years Ryder Cup and it looks like he has benefitted a lot from being in that team room in Rome.
His iron play has been magnificent these last few months ranking 11-20-2-21-3 in that department in this last five tournaments.
His putter has been hot throughout also and that's a potent combination around links tracks. He is free rolling the rest of this season given what he has achieved and I wouldn't be surprised should more chances of a victory present themselves before here and the DP World Tour Championship.
Two top 25 finishes here in two efforts is a fair return and with a few of the favourites almost certain not to be at the races in this format Rasmus looks a value selection from the middle of the pack.
Mathieu Pavon at 75/1 (Eight Places)
I invested some money in Mathieu Pavon last week at 25/1 and with his impressive record around there I was quite excited.
It didn't work out but maybe a title defence was a little bit too much of a reach and I'm prepared to give him another go, this time at a whopping 80/1.
I'm surprised at those odds and I'm not quite convinced he is that far removed from the form that won him the Farmers Insurance Open back in January and his 5th place at the US Open in June.
He has produced some special golf and that took him all the way to the Tour Championship at East Lake.
His iron play hasn't quite been at it these last few weeks, but this is an easier test granted some fair weather and the fact that putting plays more of a part here than approach play spells the Frenchman will be suited by a return to the links.
6th here last year and a couple more top 20s suggest he's more than capable and he looks a value play all the way down odds board.
Calum Hill at 150/1 (Six Places)
Top price of 175/1 has gone on Calum Hill but the 150/1 that remains is very backable and he's an interesting outsider.
His form lately doesn't read great but I don't think that tells the full story. Whilst walking with him for a half a round the weekend of the Irish Open I made a mental note to include him in my thoughts for this week's event given how he was performing.
He got a few bad breaks on the Saturday at Royal County Down but he looked at home amongst the links and was generally quite tidy.
His four appearances here read 25-CUT-17-26 which is generally fine given the somewhat rollercoaster nature of this event and the sublime to the ridiculous results of even some of the favourites.
His iron play has improved every week since the Italian Open in late June and back in Scotland should provide him ample opportunity to score well.
Conclusion is that he's simply a little overpriced.
0.75pt each-way C.Hill 150/1 (1/5 6) Unibet, BetUK, Livescore, Spreadex, SportingIndex
Joe Dean at 175/1 (Eight Places)
It'll be a tall order for anyone to topple the top 10 or so in this market but the first few in the betting are easily avoided and in a week determined by an ounce of luck and patience I'm happy to include what would possibly be the story of the year on the DPWT should he win in the shape of Joe Dean.
Earlier this year Dean didn't have enough money to fund his tour career but took the plunge in February and was rewarded with a runner up finish in Kenya immediately.
More close calls have followed since with four more top 5 finishes, the latest of those coming last week in Spain.
The quality of the field determines the price somewhat but he looks to have a better chance than what the odds suggest and he could easily run into a place now he is absolutely free rolling in terms of status and cash.
He currently sits 25th in the Race to Dubai rankings and should he be able to pull off a victory in the next couple of weeks he might just land a PGA Tour card at first try.
Daniel Brown at 200/1 (Six Places)
On a week where a few speculative plays are called for Daniel Brown looks another who is well equipped to get into contention here.
A staying performance at the Open was hugely impressive and his 10th place there has been backed up by a top 5 finish at Royal County Down a few weeks ago.
His performance there was particularly eye catching as he had seemingly played himself out of contention on the Saturday only to rally with a final day 66 and really be in contention with nine holes to play.
He looks comfortable on the links turf and his three best putting performances of the year all came on Links greens.
His confidence is high on these tests and I'd be surprised should he bomb out here like he did last week in Spain.
0.75pt each-way D.Brown 200/1 (1/5 6) Unibet, BetUK, Livescore
