Here are five opening weekend Premier League tips from the Oddschecker+ Value Bets tool, each offering positive Expected Value based on our AI’s probability edge.
As the 2025/26 Premier League season kicks off, punters are on the lookout for early value, and Oddschecker+ has done the hard work for you.
Using advanced AI that analyses 125 million daily price changes and runs over 100 million weekly simulations, our Value Bets tool identifies betting opportunities where the odds don't reflect the true probability.
We've picked out five standout selections for the opening weekend, each offering positive Expected Value (EV), meaning they could deliver long-term profit when backed consistently.
From bookings to goalscorers, here are five smart bets to consider.
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Premier League Value Tips
Man United vs Arsenal Bet Builder
The first value tip of the week is a 45/1 (BetMGM) bet builder on the Man United vs Arsenal game.
It is as short as 25/1 elsewhere.
Casemiro To Be Shown A Card
Casemiro picked up five yellows in 24 appearances last season, averaging a 0.3 yellow cards every 90 minutes.
Both these sides will want to get off to a fast start this season and can't afford a loss on teh first day, expect a fiery affair.
If you fancy backing it as a single, our AI tool suggests it has a EV of 31% if backed at current best odds (5/2).
Bukayo Saka Anytime Scorer
In a season where injuries held him back, Saka didn't quite reach the level that has become expected of him last season, scoring six times in 25 appearances and picking up 10 assists.
Nevertheless, the Arsenal forward was still one of their most constant attackign threats, averaging 0.36 xG per 90 in the Premier League.
If you fancy backing it as a single, our AI tool suggests it has a EV of 21% if backed at the current best price (51/20).
Cunha to be Shown a Card
Cunha picked up four yellows last season and nine the season before that.
He averaged 1.45 fouls per 90 for Wolves last season and picked up his second highest foul count of the season against Arsenal (4).
He'll be keen to make an impression on is debut and might be drawn into a rash challenge.
If you fancy backing it as a single, our AI tool suggests it has a EV of 18% if backed at the current best price (17/5).
*Odds correct as of 12:00 Thursday 14th August*
Anthony Elanga to Score or Assist
Anthony Elanga could make his first start for his new club, Newcastle, this weekend.
He bagged six goals and 11 assists last season in 38 games.
Based on the bookmakers best odds, this bet has a 33% chance of happening, however our AI tool suggests this bet actually has a 45% chance of happening, giving an EV (expected value) of 35%.
Emmanuel Agbadou Over 1.5 Tackles
Emmanuel Agbadou faces Man City's menacing attack this weekend.
His tackle count in the last nine games of the Premier League season read 2,1,0,2,3,1,3,1,2. He hit the over 1.5 mark in five of those nine games.
BetMGM UK
One of those games was against Man City in which he picked up 2 tackles.
Based on the bookmakers best odds, this bet has a 54% chance of happening, however our AI tool suggests this bet actually has a 72% chance of happening, giving an EV (expected value) of 31%.
Lyle Foster Over 0.5 Fouls
Lyle Foster should start upfront for Burnley in their first Premier League fixture of the season against Tottenham.
He made 36 appearances for Burnley last season (starting 24 games) and playing 2221 minutes, and picked up 33 fouls.
In his last nine appearances in the Championship he played a total of 345 minutes and picked up 9 fouls, an average of 2.35 per 90 minutes.
Based on the bookmakers best odds, this bet has a 47% chance of happening, however our AI tool suggests this bet actually has a 77% chance of happening, giving an EV (expected value) of 64%.
Hannibal Mejbri Over 1.5 Fouls
Hannibal Mejbri returns to the Premier League this weekend when he faces Tottenham away from home.
He averaged 2.5 fouls per 90 in the Championship last season and hit the over 1.5 line 16 times in 37 appearances.
BetMGM UK
He picked up eight yellows last season.
Based on the bookmakers best odds, this bet has a 46% chance of happening, however our AI tool suggests this bet actually has a 67% chance of happening, giving an EV (expected value) of 46%.
