Premier League football returns this weekend and betting expert, Oli Nixon, has given us his three best betting tips for Gameweek 4.
Saturday 13th September – Premier League Best Bets
After a two-week international break that felt more like two months, the Premier League is back in our lives at least until the next enthralling qualifiers.
Since a domestic ball was last kicked in anger we’ve had a shock managerial change at Forest, more financial charges from the FA and with the Champions League on the horizon, there’s plenty of betting opportunities to get stuck into.
Oli Nixon's Premier League Betting Tips
Murillo over 45.5 passes for Nottingham Forest v Arsenal – 5/6 – Bet365 - 1 Point
The aforementioned appointment of Ange Postecoglou at Forest brings with it new betting angles galore.
Bookmakers tend to heavily rely on historical data in their pricing and so most of Forest’s odds will be based on their time under Nuno Espirito Santo whose style could not be further from Postecoglou’s.
Under the defensive Nuno last season, Murillo averaged 40 passes per 90, however, he’d seen an interesting uptick in recent games with 67 against Chelsea, 75 vs West Ham and 84 at Palace. Last season Forest averaged 37.8% possession on the road, whilst Spurs had 55% of the ball on their travels.
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Those numbers show he’s capable of playing out from the back, something he’ll be asked to do regularly under his tactically stubborn new boss.
For context, Spurs centre backs Romero and van de Ven averaged 68 and 64 passes per 90 respectively last season and against Arsenal, their central defenders averaged 59.5.
Ange hasn’t had much time with his side due to the internationals but you can guarantee he’ll be instructing them to play out from the back from the start of his reign.
Five separate centre backs against the Gunners this season have covered this line and so they’re not pressing too high either which lends itself nicely to this bet too.
17:30 Saturday - West Ham vs Tottenham
Speaking of Tottenham, no Premier League side have conceded more shots from set pieces than Thomas Frank’s side who’ve shipped a whopping 17 in just three games.
The Europa League champions had issues defending set pieces last season, conceding the joint fourth most goals from such situations and it seems that Frank has yet to solve that particular puzzle in his short time at the club.
West Ham are not blessed with shot volume from their centre backs with Mavropanos, Kilman and Todibo mustering just two shots between them so far this season and so it is somewhat of a surprise to see them sat joint second for set piece shots in the division with 15. Much of that aerial threat is provided by Tomas Soucek who has had three shots in two starts and a further two in the EFL Cup, one of which was a headed goal.
Last season, the Czech midfielder enjoyed more attacking freedom under Graham Potter and he had 20 headed shots in 30 starts, these accounting for 36% of his total efforts at goal. 35% of those headers found the target with three resulting in goals and so his threat in the air is obvious.
With Spurs looking vulnerable, it looks a good spot for him to find the target with his head.
20:00 Saturday - Chelsea vs Brentford
Trevoh Chalobah to be fouled 1+ times for Chelsea v Brentford – 5/6 – Paddy Power - 1pt
Brentford striker Igor Thiago is the archetypal target-man; big, strong and seriously clumsy. The Brazilian has committed 11 fouls in his four appearances across all competitions for the Bees this season at an average of 3.3 per 90. This is in line with his reputation from Club Brugge where
he averaged 2.02 fouls per 90 and so he’s clearly a striker who’s no stranger to drawing the attention of the officials.
With this information, it makes sense to target his direct opposition to be fouled and given that Trevoh Chalobah has drawn four fouls across his three starts this season, he looks nicely priced to be on the receiving end of Thiago’s agricultural style. The lone frontman has looked isolated all season and will get little change out of Chelsea’s backline and so is even more likely to lash out, hopefully with at least one of his infringements occurring against Chalobah.
