How does Postive Expected Value (EV) betting work?

When bookmakers set betting lines, they estimate the likelihood of each outcome.

Our positive EV tool, leverages advanced AI to perform 100 million projections each week and monitors 125 million live price changes daily.

This enables it to identify bets that have a higher probability of winning than what the lines suggest.

In these weekly column, we pick out five of the best bets for the weekend's football from the Positive EV Tool. 

So far this football season, our Expected Value best bets are 6.08pts in profit. 

14:30 Saturday - Mainz vs Dortmund

Arnaud Nordin (Mainz) - Over 1.5 Shots vs Borussia Dortmund - 1.5pts - 1/1 with BetMGM and Virgin Bet

In four starts so far this season for Mainz, Arnaud Nordin has had at least two shots in all four of them. 

So the price of 1/1 available with Bet MGM and Virgin Bet is highlighted as a great EV play with our tool, especially as other bookmakers have this bet priced up as short as 1/5. 

Our Expected Value Tool has the probability of this bet landing at 78%, so the even money available provides a Positive EV of 58.31%. 

15:00 Saturday - Leeds vs Bournemouth

Ethan Ampadu - Over 1.5 Tackles vs Bournemouth - 2pts - 11/10 with 10Bet

Our EV pick of the weekend is Ethan Ampadu to make 2+ tackles in Leeds' home match vs Bournemouth on Saturday.

Ampadu has hit the 2+ tackles line in all three starts so far this season, and in 15/26 Championship starts for Leeds this season. 

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In Bournemouth's last three Premier League games, Sandro Tonali (2), Yasin Ayari (4), and James Milner (2) are all central midfielders who have hit the over 1.5 tackle line. 

Our EV tool has this bet at a 66.82% probability of landing, meaning the 11/10 avaiable with 10Bet provides 40.32% of Positive Expected value. 

Other bookmakers on Oddschecker have Ethan Ampadu over 1.5 tackles priced up as short as 1/5. 

15:00 Saturday - Man City vs Burnley

Josko Gvardiol - Over 0.5 Shots vs Burnley - 1pt - 3/4 with Sporting Index and SpreadEx

Croatian defender Josko Gvardiol has made a name for himself at Man City as a defender who likes to have a shot on goal. 

Last season, Gvardiol had at least one shot in 75% of matches when starting at centre-back and our EV tool has picked out his shot line as a play this weekend. 

The odds of 3/4 available with Sporting Index and SpreadEx currently provde 23.69% of Positive EV, with our tool giving this bet an implied probability of 70.68%. 

15:00 Saturday - Watford vs Hull

Oliver McBurnie - Over 1.5 Shots vs Watford - 1.5pts - 5/4 with Coral and Ladbrokes

Oli McBurnie has been a man possessed since joining Hull in the summer transfer window. The Scotsman has four goals in six starts, and has scored in consecutive games against Swansea and Southampton. 

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McBurnie has logged at least two shots in four of the six starts and had 3+ in both of his away starts for Hull in the Championship. 

The 5/4 available Coral and Labrokes is given a Positive EV of 50.58% with our tool giving this bet a 78.84% of winning. Bet365 has McBurnie 2+ shots priced up at 3/10 at the time of writing.

14:30 Sunday - Freiburg vs Hoffenheim

Lukas Kubler - Over 0.5 Shots vs Hoffenheim - 1.5pts - 1/1 with Betway

For our final tip of the weekend we look at Sunday's meeting betwen Freiburg and Hoffenheim in the Bundesliga. 

Freiburg's right back, Lukas Kubler, has had at least one shot in all three home starts so far this season ahead of Hoffenheim's visit. 

Last season, Kubler had at least one shot in 7/12 home starts and our EV tool has highlighted this play as one to back. 

Our EV tool has the probability of Kubler having at least one shot on Sunday at 78.62%, meaning the odds of 1/1 available with Betway give this play a Positive EV of 57.24%.