Oli Nixon's Premier League Best Bets are 3.6pts in profit over the past two gameweeks, and he's picked out five plays for this weeekend's football.
27th September – Oli Nixon's Premier League Best Bets
Elliot Anderson passes were in by half time last weekend for a lovely winner and Joachim Andersen didn’t take long to be fouled either as we banked a profitable week for the column.
With the season in full flow, there’s plenty more betting angles to take advantage of this weekend!
Igor Thiago to commit o1.5 fouls for Brentford v Man Utd – 11/10 – Sporting Index & SpreadEx – 2.5 units
In what is becoming a habit on this column, the go to bet for the weekend is Igor Thiago fouls for Brentford and this week we’ve got a backable price for him rather than his opponent to be fouled.
The Brazilian brute is averaging 3.03 fouls per 90 in a Bees shirt and has now made at least two fouls in all five starts this season as well as adding two more in 30 minutes from the bench in the EFL Cup. He’s been booked three times for his troubles too but shows no sign of calming down his physical approach.
He's likely to be up against United’s back three of Lenny Yoro, Matthijs de Ligt and Luke Shaw, all of whom can mix it physically and will look to get tight to Thiago and frustrate him anytime he’s in possession. That trio drew three fouls from the physical Viktor Gyokeres earlier in the season but in all honesty, it doesn’t seem to matter who the opponents are, Thiago is a battering ram and so long as he struggles to keep his temper under wraps, we’ll be taking this price every week.
15:00 Saturday - Leeds vs Bournemouth
Antoine Semenyo to commit o1.5 fouls for Bournemouth v Leeds – 4/5 – Bet365 – 1 unit
Another player who is familiar with the sound of the referee’s whistle is Bournemouth winger Antoine Semenyo who sits tenth in the division for fouls committed having made an average of 1.8 per 90. He only made one infringement last week against Newcastle but prior to that he’d had two fouls in each of his four Premier League starts this season and a record of 2.05 fouls per 90 last season suggests he’s likely to maintain this form.
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Up against Semenyo will be Leeds full back Gabriel Gudmundsson who has a good record for drawing contact, averaging 2.12 fouls drawn per 90 last season in Ligue 1. He’s won four fouls already in Premier League action but is yet to face a winger who is as physical as Semenyo and with his aggressive press, there’ll be plenty of opportunities to go down.
17:30 Saturday - Nottingham Forest vs Sunderland
Dan Ballard o0.5 shots for Sunderland v Nottingham Forest – 4/5 – Betway – 1.5 units and Omar Alderete o0.5 shots for Sunderland v Nottingham Forest – 6/5 – Bet365 – 1 unit
Both of these angles are born out of a belief that Ange Postecoglou sides are poor at defending set pieces.
His Tottenham side last season conceded 13 goals from dead ball situations and in his three domestic games at Forest so far, they’ve managed to concede four goals from restarts. Across Ange’s four games in charge, opposition centre backs have been afforded a massive 12 efforts at goal and given how glaring a weakness this is, getting Sunderland’s set piece threats on side feels an obvious play. Throw in the fact that Murillo is possibly out injured and Milenkovic went off injured against Betis on Thursday too and it looks an even better opportunity.
Dan Ballard returned from injury from the bench last weekend against Villa and wasted no time in having a shot at goal to add to his four shots against West Ham on opening day. He’s Sunderland’s most imperious aerial presence and as such is the target for first contact from every delivery into the box and his average of 1.12 shots per 90 last season means we can stake more aggressively on him.
Ballard’s centre back partner Omar Alderete has also provided plenty of attacking threat this season with five shots in four league starts so far. The Paraguayan also has a favourable shot record having taken 1.15 shots per game in La Liga last season and whilst the likelihood of him getting on the end of set pieces is reduced by Ballard’s return, his 18 shots from outside the box last season show that he’s also happy to pull the trigger from range. Backing both gives us a chance from every long throw, wide free kick and corner and we can even get excited if Alderete gets the ball 30 yards out too.
14:00 Sunday - Aston Villa vs Fulham
Joachim Andersen to score anytime for Fulham v Aston Villa – 20/1 – Bet365 – 0.25 units
Speaking of sides who look vulnerable from restarts, Aston Villa have been uncharacteristically weak in this area this season and have conceded the joint most shots from such situations in the division, giving up 28 in just five games. Those shots have only led to one goal conceded whereas the only other side to have matched Villa’s record have conceded seven and so it feels unlikely that they can continue to be so poor without being punished.
If Fulham are to profit from Villa’s flimsy backline, Joachim Andersen looks the most likely beneficiary as most set plays are aimed at his head. The big Dane has had three shots in his last three starts and would already have a goal to his name if not for an excellent Robert Sanchez save against Chelsea. He has five Premier League goals on his resume and so is capable of finding the back of the net and a game against a vulnerable Villa side who are fatigued from Thursday’s exploits in Europe could be just the chance he needs to do so again.
