Matthew O'Regan is back with his weekly column, picking out his five best bets from the weekend's EFL fixtures.
15:00 Derby vs Southampton
Both Teams To Score - Best Odds 20/21 (AK Bets) – 10/11 – Widely Available – 1 point
Both Derby and Southampton have struggled to live up to expectations in the early stages of the season. The Rams find themselves just a point above the relegation zone, with only a single victory to their name so far. Their matches have been open affairs: 10 goals scored and 14 conceded across eight games, an average of three goals per outing. Both teams have scored in seven of their nine fixtures, the only exceptions being a 1-0 win at West Brom and a 0-1 home defeat to Preston.
Southampton, meanwhile, are still adjusting to life back in the Championship after a miserable Premier League campaign ended in relegation. Much was expected under highly-rated manager Will Still, but the Saints’ start has been far from convincing. They did, however, claim a morale-boosting 2-1 win at Sheffield United in midweek. That result continued a striking trend: all four of their league games on the road have seen both teams score, as have seven of their eight fixtures overall. The lone outlier came in a tense 0-0 derby stalemate with Portsmouth.
15:00 Satuday - Stevenage vs Luton
Stevenage – Draw No Bet – 1 point – 1/1 - Widely Available
League One has already thrown up its share of surprises, with Bradford City, Stevenage and Lincoln currently leading the way. Under Alex Revell, Boro’ have been superb, and a win on Saturday could see them climb to the summit.
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The Lamex has been a true fortress, with Stevenage winning all four of their home games so far, scoring six goals and conceding just once. Confidence will be sky-high after their thrilling 3-2 midweek victory away at Leyton Orient.
Luton, meanwhile, have endured a mixed start following back-to-back relegations but still sit in seventh. Recent results — four points taken from Doncaster and Blackpool — have eased some of the pressure on Matt Bloomfield. That said, the spotlight will be back on him if the Hatters come up short at Stevenage.
15:00 - Lincoln vs Exeter
Lincoln Half Time/Full Time – 8/5 – Widely Available – 1 point
Lincoln have surprised many this season, keeping pace with the top two as Michael Skubala turns the Imps into genuine title contenders. They’ve lost just once all campaign — away at AFC Wimbledon, where they played 70 minutes with ten men — and head into this clash on the back of three straight league wins, including a convincing 3-1 victory over Luton. The LNER has become a fortress: Lincoln have led at half-time in all five of their home games, and in all but one league match overall.
Exeter, by contrast, look toothless in attack and brittle at the back. The Grecians have lost five in a row, scoring just once in that stretch. Their only away success came via a smash-and-grab at Wycombe, a 1-0 win courtesy of an own goal despite posting just 0.21 xG against 1.48. Gary Caldwell’s side have lost the other four on the road and face an uphill battle against an in-form Lincoln outfit.
12:30 Saturday - Newport County vs Swindon
Swindon win and btts – 12/5 – Bet365 – 1pt
Newport County are in real trouble, with relegation already looking a genuine threat. The Exiles have lost seven of their last eight league games, the only reprieve a 1-1 draw at Tranmere. David Hughes’s side have collected just five points from their opening ten matches — a miserable return — though their games have been entertaining, with BTTS landing in eight of those ten.
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Swindon, by contrast, are flying high in second place after seven wins from ten. Ian Holloway’s side have netted a league joint-high 21 goals, failing to score only once all season. They’ve struck at least twice in eight of their ten fixtures, and they’ll be confident of exploiting Newport’s fragile defence. BTTS has also been a common theme for the Robins — landing in seven of their ten matches, and in four of five on the road.
15:00 Walsall vs Bristol Rovers
Fabrizio Cavegn Anytime Goalscorer – 10/3 – Sky Bet and Paddy Power – 1 point
Bristol Rovers’ summer capture of Fabrizio Cavegn from Liechtenstein outfit FC Vaduz was arguably their most eye-catching piece of business. The 23-year-old striker hit 21 goals in 38 games in the Swiss Challenge League last season, marking him out as a real coup for the Gas.
It took Cavegn a little while to settle, but a brace off the bench against Tottenham’s Academy side appeared to kick-start his confidence. He followed that up with lively displays, registering four shots and 1.11 xG against Newport — though it was substitute Ellis Harrison who stole the headlines with a brace that day.
Since then, Cavegn has found his stride, scoring in three consecutive league games against Barrow, Colchester and Salford. He now averages 0.54 goals and 0.40 xG per 90 minutes in the league — numbers that underline both his potential and the value in the prices being quoted on him.
