In the first of a new daily tipping series, the EV Eagle picks out their five best bets for Thursday's Europa League action.
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In the first of a daily tipping series, the EV Eagle picks out their best bets from our Positive Expected Value tool, one of the premium tools available to Oddscheker+ subscribers.
In today's article, the Eagle has picked out five bets for Thursday's Europa League 8pm matches.
How does Positive Expected Value (EV) betting work?
When bookmakers set betting lines, they estimate the likelihood of each outcome.
Value Bets, our Positive EV Tool available for Oddschecker+ subscribers, leverages advanced AI to perform 100 million projections each week and monitors 125 million live price changes daily. This enables it to identify bets that have a higher probability of winning than what the lines suggest.
Shown below are the EV Eagle's five best bets for Thursday's Europa League slate.
Tip 1: Abde Ezzalzouli - 1+ Shot on Target vs Lyon - 2pts
4/5 best price available with BetMGM when publishing.
Abdessamad Ezzalzouli averages over one shot on target per game in La Liga and maintains a strong 40% accuracy rate on his attempts.
He has featured in all Europa League group matches, showing trust from the manager and consistent involvement in attack.
Tonight, he is expected to start on the left wing in a 4-2-3-1 system, which suits his style of cutting inside and shooting.
With Real Betis needing a win and Lyon’s defense likely to face sustained pressure, the probability of Ezzalzouli registering at least one shot on target is high.
Stuttgart vs Feyenoord
Tip 2: Anis Hadj Moussa - Over 1.5 shots vs Stuttgart - 1.5pts
17/20 best price available when publishing with betway.
Anis Hadj Moussa is a high-volume shooter, averaging 2.63 shots per 90 minutes and already producing 26 shots in 10 Eredivisie games this season.
He’s featured in all three Europa League group matches, scoring once and generating 0.3 xG, which signals consistent attacking involvement.
Stuttgart’s defense is vulnerable, conceding 5.7 shots on target per game, and Moussa will start as a right winger in Feyenoord’s aggressive setup, giving him space to attack.
With recent form including five shots in his last league match, the likelihood of him registering at least two shots tonight is strong.
Our Positive EV tool has the probability of this bet landing at 79.77%, so the odds of 17/20 with betway gives us a Positive EV of 47.57% on this play.
PAOK vs Young Boys
Tip 3: Chris Bedia - Over 1.5 Shots vs PAOK - 1pt
23/20 best price available when publishing with betway.
Young Boys striker, Chris Bedia has hit this shot line in five of his past seven starts for Young Boys ahead of their trip to PAOK on Thursday night.
BetMGM UK
He scored and had three shots last time in the Europa League vs Ludogorets and Lille striker Igamane had five shots last time out vs PAOK in the Europa League.
Our Positive EV tool has the probability of this bet landing at 71.68%, so the odds of 23/20 with betway gives us a Positive EV of 54.11% on this play.
Bologna vs Brann
Tip 4: Santiago Castro - Over 2.5 Shots vs Brann
49/50 best price with BetMGM when publishing.
Santiago Castro Over 2.5 Shots vs Brann looks strong if he starts.
Castro averages around 2–3 shots per 90 and comes off a brace at Parma, signaling confidence and likely minutes.
Bologna are expected to dominate at home in a must‑win spot, while Brann’s open defensive profile (xGA ~1.3 away) and midfield absences should allow central box entries.
With Bologna’s cross‑heavy setup feeding the striker, 3+ attempts is a realistic median outcome—rotation risk is the only caveat, so confirm lineups before staking.
Our Positive EV tool has the probability of this bet landing at 71.59%, so the odds of 49/50 with BetMGM gives us a Positive EV of 51.77% on this play.
Aston Villa vs Maccabi Tel Aviv
Tip 5: Jadon Sancho - Over 0.5 Shots on Target vs Maccabi Tel Aviv - 1pt
Jadon Sancho Over 0.5 Shots on Target vs Maccabi Tel Aviv looks strong given his elite accuracy and role in Villa’s attack.
Sancho averages over 3 shots on target per 90 in league play and is expected to start in a front three at Villa Park.
Aston Villa dominate possession at home and face a Maccabi side conceding 1.5 goals per match with a shaky xGA profile.
One accurate effort is highly probable in a game where Villa should control territory and create chances.
Our Positive EV tool has the probability of this bet landing at 69.89%, so the odds of 11/10 with BetMGM gives us a Positive EV of 46.77% on this play.
