After picking up two winners in yesterday's debut (including a 2pt NAP), the EV Eagle is back with five bets for Friday's football.
The EV Eagle has landed on Oddschecker!
In this new daily tipping series, the EV Eagle picks out their best bets from our Positive Expected Value tool, one of the premium tools available to Oddscheker+ subscribers.
In today's article, the Eagle has picked out five best EV bets for Friday's football matches across Europe.
How does Positive Expected Value (EV) betting work?
When bookmakers set betting lines, they estimate the likelihood of each outcome.
Value Bets, our Positive EV Tool available for Oddschecker+ subscribers, leverages advanced AI to perform 100 million projections each week and monitors 125 million live price changes daily. This enables it to identify bets that have a higher probability of winning than what the lines suggest.
Yesterday's Results:
Tip 1: Abde Ezzalzouli - 1+ Shot on Target vs Lyon - 2pts - Won @ 4/5
Tip 2: Anis Hadj Moussa - Over 1.5 shots vs Stuttgart - 1.5pts - Won @ 17/20
Tip 3: Chris Bedia - Over 1.5 Shots vs PAOK - 1pt - VOID (Non-starter)
Tip 4: Santiago Castro - Over 2.5 Shots vs Brann - 1pt - Loss (Finished with 2)
Tip 5: Jadon Sancho - Over 0.5 Shots on Target vs M Tel Aviv - 1pt - Loss
Tip 1: Konstantinos Koulierakis - 1+ Foul vs Werder Bremen - 2pts
Best odds of 5/6 available with Coral/Ladbrokes when publishing. As short as 2/9 elsewhere.
Greek centre-back, Konstantinos Koulierakis, has been picking up fouls consistently through the start of this season, committing at least 1 in 10/15 starts for club and country.
He picked up three across his two matches vs Werder Bremen last season, odds of 5/6 provide good value to commit at least one Friday night.
Our Positive EV tool has the probability of this bet landing at 73.18%, so the odds of 5/6 with Ladbrokes/Coral when publishing gives us a Positive EV of 31.72% on this play.
Elche vs Real Sociedad
Tip 2: German Valera - 2+ Shots vs Real Sociedad - 1pt
19/20 best price available with Ladbrokes/Coral. As short as 1/4 elsewhere.
While German Valera has not been hitting this line for Elche away, at home paints a different story.
He has 2+ shots in thre out of four home starts this season, and with Real Sociedad in the top half of the league for shots conceded, Valera has a good chance to hit this line again.
Our Positive EV tool has the probability of this bet landing at 73.2%, so the odds of 19/20 with Ladbrokes/Coral when publishing gives us a Positive EV of 42.74% on this play.
Werder Bremen vs Wolfsburg
Tip 3: Romano Schmid - 1+ Foul vs Wolfsburg - 1.25pts
Best price of 4/5 with Ladbrokes/Coral. As short as 1/4 elsewhere.
Werder Bremen midfielder, Romano Schmid, has seven fouls through five home starts this season for club and country, and we are backing him to add another to his tally on Friday.
He comes up against a Wolfsburg midfield who are drawing an average of 4.2 fouls per game in the Bundesliga this season.
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The Austrian midfielder also has committed four fouls in three previous H2H's vs Wolfsburg.
Our Positive EV tool has the probability of this bet landing at 67.9%, so the odds of 4/5 with Ladbrokes/Coral when publishing gives us a Positive EV of 32.41% on this play.
Watford vs Bristol City
Tip 4: Zak Vyner - 1+ Shot vs Watford - 0.75pts
Best price of 23/20 with betway. As short as 2/7 elsewhere.
Since moving into a midfielder position for Bristol City, Zak Vyner has been shooting with regularity.
Vyner has nine across his previous seven starts, and five in his last two away matches.
The tip is 0.75pts rather than 1pt as there are rumours that Vyner may move back in to the Bristol City defence against Watford.
Our Positive EV tool has the probability of this bet landing at 65.83%, so the odds of 23/20 with betway when publishing gives us a Positive EV of 41.53% on this play.
Watford vs Bristol City
Tip 5: Mamdou Doumbia - 1+ Shot on Target vs Bristol City - 1pt
11/10 best price with betway. As short as 2/5 elsewhere.
In Mamadou Doumbia's last home game, he bagged his first goal of the season and also contributed to his team's 3-0 win with an assist.
We are hoping he takes this confidence into the match vs Bristol City on Friday and have at least one shot on target.
We've seen a rise in his playing time over the past three matches so that shouldn't be a worry for this bet.
Our Positive EV tool has the probability of this bet landing at 63.12%, so the odds of 11/10 with betway when publishing gives us a Positive EV of 32.55% on this play.
