The EV Eagle is back with five bets for Sunday's football.
The EV Eagle has landed on Oddschecker!
In this new daily tipping series, the EV Eagle picks out their best bets from our Positive Expected Value tool, one of the premium tools available to Oddscheker+ subscribers.
In today's article, the Eagle has picked out five best EV bets for Sunday's football matches across Europe.
How does Positive Expected Value (EV) betting work?
When bookmakers set betting lines, they estimate the likelihood of each outcome.
Value Bets, our Positive EV Tool available for Oddschecker+ subscribers, leverages advanced AI to perform 100 million projections each week and monitors 125 million live price changes daily. This enables it to identify bets that have a higher probability of winning than what the lines suggest.
Yesterday's Results:
Tip 1: Sonny Carey – 1+ Shot on Target vs Wrexham – 1pt WON @ 6/5
Tip 2: Esteve – 1+ Foul vs West Ham – 1pt LOST
Tip 3: Kyle Walker – 2+ Tackles vs West Ham – 2pt LOST
Tip 4: Micky van de Ven – 1+ Shot vs Manchester United – 1.5pt LOST
Tip 5: Jake O’Brien – 1+ Foul vs Fulham – 1pt VOID (non-starter)
Tip 1: Ayyoub Bouaddi – 1+ Shot vs Strasbourg – 0.75pt
11/10 best price available with Betway.
Bouaddi has been quietly consistent in getting shots off this season, recording efforts of 2,1,0,0,2,0,0,1,1,1,0,2,1 across his appearances. Notably, he’s hit 2+ shots in two of his last three away games, showing a willingness to get forward on the road.
Our AI model gives this selection a 74% probability of landing compared to 47% implied by the odds, giving it an impressive 55% expected value.
BetMGM UK
Tip 2: Rayan Cherki – 2+ Shots vs Liverpool – 1pt
6/5 best price available with BetMGM.
Rayan Cherki averages 3.83 shots per 90 this season and has posted shot totals of 1,3,5,1,0,1 in just 270 minutes of football. After scoring off the bench against Borussia Dortmund, he looks set to start on the the right.
With 2 goals in his last three games, the young Frenchman’s confidence is high. The AI model rates this play at 72% probability, compared to 46% implied by the odds, giving a 54% positive expected value.
Tip 3: Jae-sung Lee – 2+ Shots vs Eintracht Frankfurt – 1pt
23/20 best price available with Betway.
When starting, Jae-sung Lee has been an active shooter, registering 2,0,1,2,2,0,3,3,3 shots in his recent appearances. He averages 2 shots per 90 minutes this season, showing consistent involvement in attacking areas.
This selection carries a 71% AI probability, 47% odds-implied probability, and a 52% expected value, making it a strong option at odds-against.
Tip 4: Diego Gómez – 2+ Shots vs Crystal Palace – 2pts
7/5 best price available with BetMGM.
Diego Gómez has impressed this season, most notably scoring four goals against Barnsley in the EFL Cup. With Kaoru Mitoma injured, the Paraguayan has been deployed on the wing, where he’s using his pace and strength to get into shooting positions.
Against Leeds, he scored twice and posted 1.35 xG, underlining his attacking influence. Across league matches where he’s played 45+ minutes, his shot numbers read 4,1,2,1,5,1,0,3.
The AI model gives this bet a 69% probability, compared to 42% implied by the odds, offering a 64% positive expected value — one of the strongest on the slate.
Tip 5: Elliot Anderson – 2+ Fouls vs Leeds – 1pt
23/20 best price available with BetMGM.
In a must-win game for Forest, Anderson’s tenacity in midfield could be key. Operating as a box-to-box midfielder often alongside Ryan Yates, he’s tasked with pressing, breaking up play, and disrupting the opposition, all of which increase his foul potential.
He’s averaged 1.69 fouls per game, the highest in the Forest side, with recent totals of 2,1,3,1,2,4,2,3.
Our AI model gives this bet a 56% probability versus 46% implied by the odds, resulting in a 22% expected value at a fair price of 23/20.
