17:30 Saturday

Erling Haaland Anytime Goalscorer @ 1.91 Bet365 (1.5u)

Haaland comes into this one in ridiculous scoring form and it’s hard to look past him. He’s found the net in 19 out of 15 games across all competitions this season and is averaging well over four shots per game, with most of them testing the keeper (2.47 Shots On Target Per Game). Even when teams manage to limit his chances, like Liverpool did recently, he still somehow finds a way through.

His overall finishing numbers are miles ahead of what the underlying data says he “should” have, which tells you everything about how clinical he’s been. City remain the most dangerous attacking side in the division for now and Haaland's run of form could be down to them playing more direct this season. The only mild concern is his modest scoring record against Newcastle in previous league meetings, but given the level he's operating at right now and how often he gets into great positions, it’s not enough to put me off. Newcastle have also conceded a fair amount of shots this season which naturally plays into Haaland’s hands.

Bruno Guimarães to be Carded @ 3.25 Sky, Paddy Power 1 Pt

Sam Barrott is exactly the kind of referee you want onside for a cards angle. He’s produced 32 yellows and a red in just six Premier League matches, so a clear “overs” ref with a quick trigger when games heat up.

Bruno’s record against Manchester City is about as strong as it gets for this market: nine meetings, eight bookings. The only match he avoided a card was the 23/24 FA Cup tie, but even then he still committed three fouls.

He’s already been booked three times in the league this season, and with no suspension risk hanging over him, he’s free to play with his usual edge. This price feels a touch high given the matchup and referee we’ve been given.

15:00 Saturday

Guehi Over 0.5 Shots @ 1.95 Coral/Ladbrokes, 1.5 Pts

Guehi missed the Brighton game but Glasner’s confirmed he’s back in the squad today.

He’s averaging exactly 1.0 shot per match this season which traditionally you see this priced closer to 1.50 so getting anything near 1.95 is immediately appealing. His recent output is great too. Eight shots across his last seven appearances with recent counts of 2, 0, 1, 2, 1, 1, 1.

The matchup helps as well. Wolves concede 13.3 shots per game, around 12.6% above the Premier League average, which should give Palace enough moments for Guehi to get involved. This price feels like one that won’t last coming up to kick off.