The EV Eagle has five betting tips covering the 8pm Champions League fixtures on Tuesday.
The EV Eagle has landed on Oddschecker!
In this new daily tipping series, the EV Eagle picks out their best bets from our Positive Expected Value tool, one of the premium tools available to Oddscheker+ subscribers.
In today's article, the Eagle has picked out the five best EV bets for Tuesday's round of Champions League fixtures.
How does Positive Expected Value (EV) betting work?
When bookmakers set betting lines, they estimate the likelihood of each outcome.
Value Bets, our Positive EV Tool available for Oddschecker+ subscribers, leverages advanced AI to perform 100 million projections each week and monitors 125 million live price changes daily. This enables it to identify bets that have a higher probability of winning than what the lines suggest.
Yesterday's Results:
Espanyol vs Sevilla - Over 2.5 Match Goals - 1pt - 6/5 - Won
Jayden Addai - Over 1.5 Shots - 1pt - 11/10 - Won
Bruno Fernandes - Anytime Goalscorer - 0.75pts - Lost
Running P+L: +23.35pts
Marseille vs Newcastle United
Tip 1 - Bruno Guimaraes Over 1.5 Fouls - 1pt
Best odds of 4/5 available on SpreadEx while publishing.
Brazil international Bruno Guimarães is Newcastle’s midfield engine. He has committed 6 fouls in his last 3 Champions League matches. Against a Marseille side that thrives on dribblers cutting inside and drawing contact, Guimarães’ fouls line sits at a favourable price.
Our Positive EV tool has the probability of this bet landing at 65%, so the odds of 4/5 with SpreadEx when publishing gives us a Positive EV of 17% on this play.
Given his aggressive style and Marseille’s high-tempo transitions, Guimarães is perfectly suited to land this line again.
Bodo Glimt vs Juventus
Tip 2 - Kenan Yildiz 0.5+ Shot on Target - 1.5pt
Best Odds of 4/5 available on Paddy Power while publishing.
Kenan Yıldız has become one of Juventus’ most progressive attackers, regularly testing goalkeepers with efforts from the edge of the box or from inside channels. Yildiz averages 2.5 shots per game and at least one shot on target per game in the Serie A this season.
Our Positive EV tool has the probability of this bet landing at 72%, so the odds of 4/5 with Paddy Power when publishing gives us a Positive EV of 30% on this play.
Bodo Glimt vs Juventus
Tip 3 - Manuel Locatelli over 1.5 Fouls - 1pt
Best odds of 26/25 on BetMGM while publishing.
Manuel Locatelli presents strong value on the over 1.5 fouls line, supported by both recent output and underlying defensive metrics. He committed two fouls in Juventus’ last Champions League match against Sporting and averages 2.2 tackles per game in the Champions League - a profile that naturally increases foul frequency in high-tempo fixtures.
Midnite
Our Positive EV tool has the probability of this bet landing at 58%, so the odds of 26/25 with BetMGM when publishing gives us a Positive EV of 19% on this play.
Against a Bodø/Glimt midfield known for fast transitions and constant ball circulation, Locatelli is statistically well positioned to exceed the foul threshold again.
Chelsea vs Barcelona
Tip 4 - Ferran Torres 0.5+ Fouls - 1pt
Best odds of 11/10 available on Paddy Power while publishing.
Ferran Torres also rates as a strong value selection on the 0.5+ fouls line, backed by consistent data and match-up dynamics. He is averaging 1.3 fouls per game in the Champions League this season, a clear indicator of his increased defensive workload in Barcelona’s pressing structure.
In a high-tempo fixture against Chelsea who build through aggressive ball progression in wide areas, Torres is likely to be pulled into repeated defensive duels.
Our Positive EV tool has the probability of this bet landing at 64%, so the odds of 11/10 with Sky Bet when publishing gives us a Positive EV of 35% on this play.
All indicators point to Torres committing at least one foul in this matchup.
Chelsea vs Barcelona
Tip 5 - Fermin Lopez Over 0.5 Shots on Target - 1.5pt
Best odds of 9/10 available on BetMGM while publishing
Fermín López shapes up as a strong value play on the 0.5+ shots on target line, supported by elite attacking numbers in the Champions League. He is averaging 1.0 goal per game, 3.7 shots per game, and an impressive 1.7 shots on target per match, underlining how central he has become to Barcelona’s forward play alongside Lamine Yamal.
Our Positive EV tool has the probability of this bet landing at 66%, so the odds of 17/20 with BetMGM when publishing gives us a Positive EV of 22% on this play.
Given his output and sustained involvement in high-quality shooting situations, Fermín is statistically well positioned to land at least one shot on target tonight.
