EV Eagle's Champions League Betting Tips for Wednesday's Matches

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In this new daily tipping series, the EV Eagle picks out their best bets from our Positive Expected Value tool, one of the premium tools available to Oddscheker+ subscribers.

In today's article, the Eagle has picked out the best EV bets for Wednesday's round of Champions League fixtures. 

How does Positive Expected Value (EV) betting work?

When bookmakers set betting lines, they estimate the likelihood of each outcome.

Value Bets, our Positive EV Tool available for Oddschecker+ subscribers, leverages advanced AI to perform 100 million projections each week and monitors 125 million live price changes daily. This enables it to identify bets that have a higher probability of winning than what the lines suggest.

Yesterday's Results:

Bruno Guimaraes Over 1.5 Fouls - 1pt - LOST

Kenan Yildiz 0.5+ Shot on Target - 1.5pt - VOID (didn't start)

Manuel Locatelli over 1.5 Fouls - 1pt - LOST

Ferran Torres 0.5+ Fouls - 1pt - LOST

Fermin Lopez Over 0.5 Shots on Target - 1.5pt - LOST

Running P+L: +18.85pts

Tip 1: Mohammed Kudus – Over 1.5 Tackles vs PSG – 1pt

11/10 best price available with BetVictor.

Kudus has produced 2,2,0,3,2,2,3,2,1,0,4,3 tackles in his last 12 matches. With one of Mbaye, Kvaratskhelia, or Barcola on the left wing (the three players that have attempted the most take ons for PSG this season) and PSG expected to dominate possession against a struggling Spurs side, Kudus should have ample opportunities to hit this line.

AI probability: 62%, odds probability: 48%, Expected Value 31%.

Tip 2: João Neves – Over 1.5 Shots vs Tottenham – 1.25pt

5/4 best price available with BetMGM.

Neves has scored in each of his last three appearances, including against Bayern Munich, and has taken 2+ shots in each of his last four appearances.

With PSG missing key attackers like Doue and Dembele, shot volume may be spread across the team, giving Neves an excellent chance to hit this line.

AI probability: 68%, odds probability: 44%, Expected Value 54%.

Tip 3: Declan Rice – Over 1.5 Tackles vs Bayern – 1pt

10/11 best price available with Betway.

Rice managed 4 tackles against Tottenham at home in his last game when we backed this bet, and similar logic applies here. Bayern average the most tackles against them in the Bundesliga, and Rice has recorded 4,3,0,5,4,2 tackles in his last six starts for Arsenal.

Known for stepping up in big games, he’s expected to be active in this match.

AI probability: 60%, odds probability: 52%, Expected Value 20%.

Tip 4: Michael Olise – Over 0.5 Shots on Target vs Arsenal – 1.5pt

10/13 best price available with BetMGM.

Arsenal are rock solid at home and don't concede many shots - just 82 in the Premier League this season home and away.

But this is their toughest task yet; Bayern are the only side in Europe's top five leagues yet to lose a game this season and share the top spot in the CL with Arsenal.

Bayern have also taken the sixth most shots in Europe's top five leagues and scored the most goals (40).

Leading their offensive output is former Premier League player, Olise who is averaging 4 shots per 90 minutes. His recent shot count reads: 8,3,3,3,3,3,3,5.

He scored twice last weekend while having eight shots.

His shot on target count reads: 3,2,2,0,1,2,1,2,0,2,3 - averaging 2 per game this season.

He has managed two against PSG, two against Dortmund and 1 against Chelsea this season showing he can do it against the top sides too.

AI probability: 66%, odds probability: 56%, Expected Value 18%.

Tip 5: Hakan Calhanoglu – Over 1.5 Shots vs Atletico Madrid – 1pt

11/8 best price available with bet365.

Two sides who are known for their defensive ability but Atleti have really not lived up to their reputation so far in the Champions League (conceded 9 in four games). They have conceded 53 shots in four games too (13 per game average) including 20 against Liverpool and 19 against Arsenal.

Inter have taken the fifth most shots in the competition so far and scored the fourth most goals.

Calhanoglu shot count: 3,0,5,3,4,3,2,2,3,1,2,6

He takes penalties and free kicks which will be important against a physical Atleti side.

AI probability 44%, Odds probability 42%.

Tip 6: Jhon Jhon – Over 1.5 Fouls vs Fortaleza – 0.75pts

11/8 best price available with Ladbrokes.

Jhon Jhon has committed 1,4,2,3,2,1,4,0,3,2 fouls in his last 11 games and has picked up eight yellow cards in 31 matches this season.

He was also carded the last time these sides met in July, making him a strong candidate to reach 2+ fouls here.