Oli Nixon's Betting Tips & Best Bets for Premier League Gameweek 13

Tip 1: Igor Thiago to be fouled o0.5 times for Brentford v Burnley – 10/11 – Skybet/Paddy Power – 1 unit

Tip 2: Axel Tuanzebe to be fouled o0.5 times for Burnley v Brentford – 2/1 – Bet365 – 0.5 units

This looks an intriguing battle between a forward in Igor Thiago and Burnley centre back Axel Tuanzebe who are averaging 2.24 and 1.2 fouls per 90 respectively and given that they’ll be in direct opposition, it stands to reason that at least one of them will be fouled. Both can best be described as clumsy in the tackle and they’ll spend the entire game trying to gain the edge over each other physically.

In terms of fouls drawn, Thiago has seen five in his last five starts whilst the last four central strikers to face Burnley have been fouled on five occasions. Centre backs being fouled against Brentford is a well-trodden path in this column given that their last seven games have seen central defenders fouled 18 times and Tuanzebe’s record of a foul drawn in two of his last three shows he’s capable of forcing offences.

Tip 3: Destiny Udogie o1.5 fouls committed for Tottenham v Fulham – 15/8 – BetMGM – 0.75 units

On his return from injury last weekend, Destiny Udogie demonstrated a little rustiness as he made two fouls on Bukayo Saka. The tough tackling full back needs no invitation to get stuck in and his record of 1.35 fouls per 90 last season paints a picture of a player who consistently crosses the line in the eyes of the officials. The Italian played just six minutes in Paris during midweek and so is likely to start here and will be up against a tricky customer.

Facing Udogie will be Fulham winger Harry Wilson who has drawn 1.68 fouls per 90 in league action this season. The Welshman has a reputation for going down easily and earning cheep free kicks and with Udogie so keen to fly in to challenges, he’ll do well to avoid making a couple of offences.

Jayden Bogle o1.5 fouls committed for Leeds v Man City – 9/5 – Paddy Power – 0.75 units

Sticking with the theme of full backs up against heavily fouled wingers, Jayden Bogle has the difficult task of containing one of the most in-form wingers in Europe in Jeremy Doku. The Belgian has been blistering for City this season and has left most opposing full backs with no choice but to haul him down, drawing 2.7 fouls per 90. Eight separate right backs have been booked against City this season to further emphasise how tough Doku is to keep quiet.

Bogle is averaging 1.11 fouls per 90 himself and whilst he’s only hit two or more fouls in three of his 12 league starts this season, all three of those came against wingers in a similar mould to Doku. With City set to dominate the ball and Doku a master at isolating full backs and drawing late contact, this looks an enticing price for Bogle to fall foul of his wing wizardry as so many others have done.

Valentino Livramento o0.5 fouls committed for Newcastle v Everton – 57/50 – BetMGM – 1 unit

Admittedly, backing a player who has only made three fouls all season for an infringement could be considered a strange approach, however, despite Tino Livramento’s squeaky clean

reputation, I’d be tempted to take on any player in world football at this price for a foul up against Jack Grealish. It’s no secret that the Toffees winger is the most fouled player in the Premier League and his record of 3.67 fouls drawn per game makes this an auto-bet at the price. Across Everton’s last ten matches, only one right back has failed to make at least one foul and so in essence, Livramento’s data is almost irrelevant.

Having said it won’t put me off, it is worth noting that Livramento has consistently been one to time his challenges to perfection, giving away just 0.18 free kicks per 90 last season. However, the last time he faced Grealish, he made a foul in just 12 minutes of action from the bench and so he’s more than capable of bringing him down at least once for us again.

Antoine Semenyo o1.5 fouls committed for Bournemouth v Sunderland – Evens – BetMGM – 1 unit - 11/10

Our final stop on this foray into all things foul play sees us heading to a player in Antoine Semenyo who has given away the third most free kicks of any Premier League player this season. The Cherries winger is averaging 2.18 fouls per 90 and has committed at least two in eight of his eleven league starts. He’s also been especially prolific for offences on the road where he’s made 17 in just six starts.

As always, the match-up is key to this bet and with Semenyo likely to be on the right wing, he’ll be up against Sunderland left back Reinildo who is drawing 2.15 fouls per 90 since arriving in the Premier League. The Mozambique international loves getting involved in a physical tussle and has forced plenty of fouls from his direct opponent this season so with Semenyo quick to fly in, he should be whistled at least twice.