EV Eagle's Betting Tips for Sunday's Premier League Football

The EV Eagle has landed on Oddschecker! 

In this new daily tipping series, the EV Eagle picks out their best bets from our Positive Expected Value tool, one of the premium tools available to Oddschecker+ subscribers. 

In today's article, the Eagle has picked out five best EV bets for Sunday's Football.. 

How does Positive Expected Value (EV) betting work?

When bookmakers set betting lines, they estimate the likelihood of each outcome.

Value Bets, our Positive EV Tool available for Oddschecker+ subscribers, leverages advanced AI to perform 100 million projections each week and monitors 125 million live price changes daily. This enables it to identify bets that have a higher probability of winning than what the lines suggest.

Yesterday's Results

Ryan Sessegnon – Over 1.5 Fouls vs Tottenham – 1pt - LOST

Hayden Hackney Over 2.5 Shots vs Derby – 1pt - WON @ 13/8

Ilias Chair – Over 0.5 Shots On Target vs Norwich – 1.25pts - WON @ 4/5

Andri Gudjohnsen Over 1.5 Shots vs Wrexham– 1pt - WON @ 3/4

Tijjani Reijnders Over 1.5 Shots vs Leeds – 1.5pts - WON @ 7/10

Accumulator - 1pt - LOST

Running P+L: +15.60pts

Tip 1: Virgil van Dijk – Over 0.5 Fouls vs West Ham – 1pt

Liverpool’s defence has struggled recently, conceding three or more goals in each of their last three games. Van Dijk’s foul output has risen with the poor results, recording 3,1,1,3,1,1 in his last six appearances.

The AI estimates a 70% probability of this outcome, with odds implied probability at 54%, giving a Positive EV of 28% at 5/6 with BetMGM.

Tip 2: Morgan Rogers – Over 0.5 Shots On Target vs Wolves – 1.25pt

Rogers is key to Aston Villa’s attacking threat and has registered five shots on target in his last five games. He scored twice in Villa’s last Premier League game against Leeds and leads the team for shots on target per game this season.

Wolves allow 9% more shots than the league average, increasing Rogers’ chances of hitting the target.

Recent shot counts read: 0,3,1,4,3.

Villa will expect to dominate this game at home against a winless Wolves side.

With a 66% AI probability and 56% odds probability, this bet has a Positive EV of 19% at 4/5 with BetMGM.

Tip 3: Mikel Merino – Over 1.5 Fouls vs Chelsea – 1.5pts

Merino has been a consistent fouler when playing as a striker, committing two or more fouls in six of his last eight starts in that position. He also recorded three fouls when Arsenal last played Chelsea with him up front last season.

Chelsea draw the third most fouls in the Premier League this season, and with the intensity of this fixture, Merino should be heavily involved in challenges.

AI probability is 63%, odds implied probability is 51%, giving a Positive EV of 24% at 19/20 with BetMGM.

Tip 4: Jean-Clair Todibo – Over 1.5 Tackles vs Liverpool – 1.5pts

Todibo has managed over 1.5 tackles in 13 of his last 17 Premier League starts. He faces a Liverpool side that dominates possession (61.83% average - most in the Prem) but allows more tackles than the league average, creating plenty of opportunities for challenges.

The AI estimates a 67% probability, with odds probability at 56%, giving a Positive EV of 13% at 7/10 with Ladbrokes.

Tip 5: Yankuba Minteh – Over 1.5 Shots vs Nottingham Forest – 1.25pts

We played this same bet last week against Brentford when he managed 3 shots and similar logic applies here against Forest. Brentford have conceded the 7th most shots in the league this season, Nottingham Forest have conceded the 5th most. Minteh averages 1.73 shots per 90 and his shot count reads: 3,2,1,2,1,2,1,2,1,3,2 in recent games.

With AI probability at 63% and odds probability at 47%, this bet has a Positive EV of 35% at 57/50 with BetMGM.

Tip 6: Accumulator - 0.75 pts

Morgan Rogers – Over 0.5 Shots On Target vs Wolves 

Mikel Merino – Over 1.5 Fouls vs Chelsea 

Yankuba Minteh – Over 1.5 Shots vs Nottingham Forest 

Best Price: 6.55/1 with BetMGM