The EV Eagle has five best bets across Friday's football action, including a tip in the Championship clash at Hull.
The EV Eagle has landed on Oddschecker!
In this new daily tipping series, the EV Eagle picks out their best bets from our Positive Expected Value tool, one of the premium tools available to Oddschecker+ subscribers.
In today's article, the Eagle has picked out three of the best EV bets from tonight's game between Man United and West Ham and combined them in a bet builder.
How does Positive Expected Value (EV) betting work?
When bookmakers set betting lines, they estimate the likelihood of each outcome.
Value Bets, our Positive EV Tool available for Oddschecker+ subscribers, leverages advanced AI to perform 100 million projections each week and monitors 125 million live price changes daily. This enables it to identify bets that have a higher probability of winning than what the lines suggest.
Yesterdays Results
18/1 Bet Builder on Man United vs West Ham: Loss
Rolling P/L: +6.61
Tip 1: Morgan Whittaker – Over 0.5 Shots on Target vs Hull - 1.25pts
Best odds of 41/50 available with BetMGM when publishing.
Whittaker is a high‑volume shooter in Middlesbrough’s system, averaging ~2.2 shots per 90 among Boro’s regulars this season, and he has logged steady attempts through November (multiple 1–3 shot games) in recent match logs.
That usage means he typically needs only one clean effort to land Over 0.5 SOT.
The matchup helps: Hull’s games have consistently yielded healthy shot totals; WhoScored's stat logs show frequent 4–7 shots on target combined and a broadly open pattern, offering Whittaker the opportunity for at least one on‑target strike.
Our Positive EV tool has the probability of this bet landing at 67%, so the odds of 41/50 with BetMGM when publishing gives us a Positive EV of 23% on this play.
Brest vs Monaco
Tip 2: Kamory Doumbia – Over 1.5 Shots vs Monaco - 1pt
Best odds of 21/20 available with BetMGM when publishing. As short as 1/4 elsewhere.
Operating as Brest’s advanced midfielder, Doumbia carries 0.32 xG per 90 with a consistent shot profile this season and has produced at least one attempt in four straight meetings with Monaco since 2023.
WhoScored's match page projects Doumbia to start in the 4‑2‑3‑1, putting him in the half‑spaces where Brest build transitions.
Monaco have improved under Sébastien Pocognoli, but recent data and match reports (e.g., the win vs PSG) still show opponents generating attempts from counters and second phases—areas Doumbia attacks.
Our Positive EV tool has the probability of this bet landing at 62%, so the odds of 21/20 with BetMGM when publishing gives us a Positive EV of 29% on this play.
Lille vs Marseille
Tip 3: Hákon Arnar Haraldsson – Over 1.5 Shots vs Marseille - 1pt
Best odds of 23/20 with BetMGM when publishing. As short as 1/4 elsewhere.
Haraldsson has been one of Lille’s most active shooters, with recent fixtures at 3–4 attempts when he starts as a central 10/right‑sided attacker.
Midnite
Marseille under De Zerbi are electric going forward but can concede volume in up‑tempo games; opponents have reached the mid‑teens in total shots in recent match logs.
Our Positive EV tool has the probability of this bet landing at 62%, so the odds of 21/20 with BetMGM when publishing gives us a Positive EV of 34% on this play.
Tip 4: Leonardo Balerdi – To Be Shown a Card vs Lille - 0.5pts
Best odds of 16/5 with Paddy Power. As short as 13/10 elsewhere.,
Balerdi’s disciplinary profile remains live he has 3 yellow cards in Ligue 1 this season, alongside ~1.0 fouls/90—typical of an aggressive centre‑back who defends large spaces.
Lille routinely draw contact: their matches often feature 10–11 fouls drawn, with ball carriers such as Félix Correia, Haraldsson and Sahraoui comfortable provoking bookings; in Lille’s 4–2 victory over Paris, they drew 11 fouls.
In a high‑variance fixture with Lille pressing centrally, Balerdi will be in repeated recovery/cover situations.
Our Positive EV tool has the probability of this bet landing at 36%, so the odds of 16/5 with Paddy Power when publishing gives us a Positive EV of 51% on this play.
Real Oviedo vs Mallorca
Tip 5: Martin Valjent – Over 0.5 Fouls vs Real Oviedo - 1pt
Best odds of 4/5 with Ladbrokes/Coral. As short as 2/5 elsewhere.
Valjent averages ~0.5–1.0 fouls per game across the last two LaLiga seasons and is frequently the first defender engaging aerials and direct entries—roles that correlate with at least one infringement.
Oviedo’s recent LaLiga slate has been physical: they’ve committed 116 fouls over their last 10 matches, and their forwards (e.g., Salomon Rondón) plus runners draw contact in transition and on second balls.
With Mallorca away and likely defending more phases, Valjent’s probability of a single foul is solid.
Our Positive EV tool has the probability of this bet landing at 68%, so the odds of 4/5 with Ladbrokes when publishing gives us a Positive EV of 23% on this play.
