The EV Eagle picks out five value bets from today's football.
The EV Eagle has landed on Oddschecker!
In this new daily tipping series, the EV Eagle picks out their best bets from our Positive Expected Value tool, one of the premium tools available to Oddschecker+ subscribers.
In today's article, the Eagle has picked out five of the best EV bets from today's football.
How does Positive Expected Value (EV) betting work?
When bookmakers set betting lines, they estimate the likelihood of each outcome.
Value Bets, our Positive EV Tool available for Oddschecker+ subscribers, leverages advanced AI to perform 100 million projections each week and monitors 125 million live price changes daily. This enables it to identify bets that have a higher probability of winning than what the lines suggest.
Yesterdays Results
Morgan Whittaker – Over 0.5 Shots on Target vs Hull - 1.25pts - WON @ 41/50
Kamory Doumbia – Over 1.5 Shots vs Monaco - 1pt @21/20 - LOST
Hákon Arnar Haraldsson – Over 1.5 Shots vs Marseille - 1pt @23/20 - LOST
Leonardo Balerdi – To Be Shown a Card vs Lille - 0.5pts @ 16/5 - LOST
Martin Valjent – Over 0.5 Fouls vs Real Oviedo - 1pt @ 4/5 - LOST
Running P/L: +3.6pts
Tip 1: Morgan Gibbs-White – Over 1.5 Shots vs Everton – 1.5pt
Gibbs-White has returned four goals in his last eight games and remains heavily involved in Forest’s attacking output. His recent shot totals read: 0,4,2,3,1,2,2,2,4,2,2,3,2,2 — excellent consistency. He can easily hit his line against an Everton side that allow above average shots per game.
The AI gives this outcome a 59% probability, compared to a 54% implied probability from the odds, producing a Positive EV of 9% at 17/20 with 10Bet.
Tip 2: Pedro Porro – Over 0.5 Shots vs Brentford – 1pt
Porro appears to have rediscovered his shooting confidence, registering attempts in each of his last three matches after a brief quiet spell. His recent shot counts of 1,2,3 across those games show a clear upward trend.
With a 72% AI probability and just a 54% implied odds probability, this selection carries strong value at 17/20 with BetMGM, delivering a Positive EV of 33%.
Tip 3: Lukas Nmecha – Over 1.5 Shots vs Liverpool – 1.25pts
Nmecha is in red-hot form, scoring three goals across his last four games and consistently getting shots away with recent figures of 2,3,1,2,1,2.
He faces a Liverpool defence low on confidence, while Leeds come into this match full of belief after a 3-1 win over Chelsea. The AI probability stands at 68% versus a 53% implied probability, creating a Positive EV of 30% at 9/10 with BetMGM.
William Hill
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Tip 4: Yuki Ohashi – Over 2.5 Shots vs Sheffield Wednesday – 1pts
Sheffield Wednesday sit rock bottom on -10 points and allow 21% more shots than the league average, making this a perfect matchup for attacking returns.
Ohashi’s recent shot numbers read: 0,3,1,5,3,3,1,8,1,6 — showing frequent high-volume games. With a 70% AI probability and 56% odds probability, this bet offers a Positive EV of 24% at 17/20 with Ladbrokes.
Tip 5: Aune Heggebø – Over 1.5 Shots vs QPR – 1.5pts
Heggebø is in outstanding form with seven shots and two goals in his last match against Swansea and five goals across his last four games. His recent shot totals of 7,2,4,3 demonstrate consistent attacking involvement.
The AI projects a 71% success rate compared to just a 52% implied probability, generating a huge Positive EV of 35%. Best price is 10/11 with Ladbrokes, though he is already as short as 1/4 elsewhere.
Tip 6: Accumulator - 0.5 pts
Morgan Gibbs-White – Over 1.5 Shots vs West Ham
Yuki Ohashi – Over 2.5 Shots vs Sheffield Wednesday
Aune Heggebø – Over 1.5 Shots vs Swansea
Best Price: 5/1 with Ladbrokes
