The EV Eagle is back with five selections across the Premier League today.
The EV Eagle has landed on Oddschecker!
In this new daily tipping series, the EV Eagle picks out their best bets from our Positive Expected Value tool, one of the premium tools available to Oddschecker+ subscribers.
In today's article, the Eagle has picked out five of the best EV bets from today's football.
How does Positive Expected Value (EV) betting work?
When bookmakers set betting lines, they estimate the likelihood of each outcome.
Value Bets, our Positive EV Tool available for Oddschecker+ subscribers, leverages advanced AI to perform 100 million projections each week and monitors 125 million live price changes daily. This enables it to identify bets that have a higher probability of winning than what the lines suggest.
Liverpool vs Wolves
Tip 1: Curtis Jones – Over 0.5 Shots vs Wolves – 2pts
3/4 with SpreadEX
80% AI probability, 57% odds implied probability, 39% Expected Value
Jones has been one of Liverpool’s standout performers since returning to the starting XI. With Salah at AFCON, Isak injured, and Szoboszlai suspended, his attacking responsibility and influence should increase further.
He has recorded a shot in six of his last seven starts and now faces a Wolves side on course to post historically poor defensive numbers in the Premier League, putting Jones in a strong position to register an attempt.
Brentford vs Bournemouth
Tip 2: Marcus Tavernier – Over 1.5 Shots vs Brentford – 1.5pt
5/6 with SpreadEX
61% AI probability, 55% odds implied probability, 12% Expected Value
Tavernier has landed this bet in 14 of his last 20 starts and in each of his last six. He’s averaging three shots per game across that recent spell and now faces a Brentford side in poor form, allowing plenty of attempts, including Wolves’ joint-highest shot tally across their last eight games.
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Arsenal vs Brighton
Tip 3: Leandro Trossard – Over 0.5 Shots On Target vs Brighton – 1pt
4/5 with SpreadEX
63% AI probability, 56% odds implied probability, 14% Expected Value
Trossard has hit the target in eight of his last ten starts and is expected to start on the left with Martinelli injured. The Arsenal winger is enjoying an excellent season, scoring six goals in all competitions, behind only Gyökeres and Bukayo Saka.
Facing his former club, Trossard should see plenty of chances in attacking areas.
Chelsea vs Aston Villa
Tip 4: Pedro Neto – Over 1.5 Shots vs Aston Villa – 1.5pt
8/11 with BetMGM
70% AI probability, 57% odds implied probability, 21% Expected Value
Neto has hit this line in 16 of his last 20 games and nine of his last ten starts. He now faces a Villa side conceding the sixth-most shots in the league, which should give Neto ample opportunity to test the goal.
Tip 5: Matty Cash – Over 0.5 Shots vs Chelsea – 1pt
4/5 with Coral
68% AI probability, 56% odds implied probability, 23% Expected Value
Cash has registered a shot in 15 of his last 20 games and has shown he can get attempts away even in tough matchups. He managed two shots against Arsenal earlier this month (the league’s lowest shot-conceding side) and has also recorded shots against Manchester City and Liverpool this season.
