The EV Eagle has five value bets in the Premier League today.
In this new daily tipping series, the EV Eagle picks out their best bets from our Positive Expected Value tool, one of the premium tools available to Oddschecker+ subscribers.
In today's article, the Eagle has picked out five of the best EV bets from today's football.
How does Positive Expected Value (EV) betting work?
When bookmakers set betting lines, they estimate the likelihood of each outcome.
Value Bets, our Positive EV Tool available for Oddschecker+ subscribers, leverages advanced AI to perform 100 million projections each week and monitors 125 million live price changes daily. This enables it to identify bets that have a higher probability of winning than what the lines suggest.
Burnley vs Newcastle
Tip 1: Lewis Miley – Over 0.5 Shots vs Burnley – 1pt
87/100 with SpreadEX at the time of publishing.
74% AI probability, 53% odds implied probability, 38% Expected Value
Newcastle’s full-backs aren’t afraid to join the attack, and since his switch to right-back, Lewis Miley has looked comfortable in the role, even scoring against Fulham - his second goal in his last five games.
He now faces Burnley, who have conceded the most shots in the league. Miley has attempted a shot in seven of his last eight games, including all three he has played at right-back, making this a strong over play.
Chelsea vs Bournemouth
Tip 2: Moises Caicedo – Over 1.5 Fouls vs Bournemouth – 1pt
21/20 with Ladbrokes at the time of publishing.
59% AI probability, 48% odds implied probability, 21% Expected Value
Bournemouth are involved in the third-most duels this season and attempt the fifth-most dribbles in the league. Their fast transition style leaves them vulnerable to fouls, and Caicedo will be tasked with stopping these counters.
He has committed 2+ fouls in three of his last four games and has been carded in each of his last three, including six fouls in his last game against Aston Villa.
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Arsenal vs Aston Villa
Tip 3: Piero Hincapié – Over 1.5 Tackles vs Aston Villa – 1.5pt
5/6 with bet365 at the time of publishing.
62% AI probability, 55% odds implied probability, 14% Expected Value
Arsenal face an in-form Aston Villa, who have won five in a row and are one of only two Premier League sides to beat the Gunners this season. Hincapié has shown he isn’t afraid to get stuck in, averaging the second-most tackles per game in the Arsenal side.
He recorded three tackles when these teams last met and has hit this line in seven of his last ten games.
Arsenal vs Aston Villa
Tip 4: Ollie Watkins – Over 1.5 Shots vs Arsenal – 1pt
17/20 with 10Bet at the time of publishing.
61% AI probability, 54% odds implied probability, 12% Expected Value
Watkins was unlucky not to score in his last game against Arsenal (0.83 xG), managing four shots. He came off the bench against Chelsea to score twice while taking four shots in just 31 minutes.
When starting, his shot count reads: 1,0,4,4,3,3. He should start this game, making this a solid over selection.
West Ham vs Brighton
Tip 5: Yasin Ayari – Over 1.5 Shots vs West Ham – 1.5pt
5/4 with Ladbrokes at the time of publishing.
50% AI probability, 46% odds implied probability, 7% Expected Value
Ayari is a prolific shooter, averaging 2.66 shots per 90 minutes. He picked up four shots in his last game against Arsenal, one of the lowest shot-conceding sides in the league.
Facing a weak West Ham side that are winless in their last seven games, Ayari has had 2+ shots in nine of his last 14 games, with his recent shot counts reading: 4,5,2,0,1,4,3,2.
