The EV Eagle picks out four value plays from tonight's football.
In this new daily tipping series, the EV Eagle picks out their best bets from our Positive Expected Value tool, one of the premium tools available to Oddschecker+ subscribers.
In today's article, the Eagle has picked out five of the best EV bets from today's football.
How does Positive Expected Value (EV) betting work?
When bookmakers set betting lines, they estimate the likelihood of each outcome.
Value Bets, our Positive EV Tool available for Oddschecker+ subscribers, leverages advanced AI to perform 100 million projections each week and monitors 125 million live price changes daily. This enables it to identify bets that have a higher probability of winning than what the lines suggest.
Toulouse vs Lens
Lens Win vs Toulouse - 1pt
15/8 with SpreadEX at the time of publishing.
40% AI probability | 35% odds implied | 15% expected value
Lens look a strong play here, coming into Friday’s clash on a six-game winning streak in Ligue 1. They boast the best defensive record in the division, conceding just 13 goals all season. Pierre Sage’s side have also won their last three away matches and five times on the road this campaign, already surpassing last season’s away return.
Toulouse are improving, but Lens have lost just once in their last eight meetings with Les Violets and have won three of their last four visits to the Stadium de Toulouse. With momentum and defensive resilience firmly on their side, Lens look well placed to edge another narrow victory.
Odsonne Édouard Over 1.5 Shots vs Toulouse - 1.5 pts
4/5 with Ladbrokes
70% AI probability | 56% odds implied | 27% expected value
Édouard has covered this line in 9 of his last 12 starts and is in excellent form. He scored his team-leading sixth and seventh league goals for Lens away at Nice in mid-December and continues to be heavily involved in their attacking play. With consistent minutes and confidence high, 2+ shots looks very achievable.
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Raya Vallecano vs Getafe
Andrei Rațiu Over 1.5 Tackles vs Getafe - 1pt
3/4 with SpreadEX at the time of publishing.
63% AI probability | 57% odds implied | 10% expected value.
Rațiu has hit this line in 9 of his last 12 starts. Getafe’s setup should suit his tackling profile, with Arambarri - the side’s most-possessed player and second for take-ons - operating on Rațiu’s side of the pitch. With wing-backs and quick transitions a key feature of Getafe's play, opportunities for tackles should present themselves.
Cagliari vs AC Milan
Matteo Prati Over 0.5 Shots vs AC Milan - 1pt
17/20 with 10Bet at the time of publishing.
69% AI probability | 54% odds implied | 27% expected value.
Prati has attempted a shot in 8 of his last 10 starts, with recent shot counts of 2, 2, 0, 4, 1. The matchup against AC Milan is challenging, but he still managed two shots against Napoli, who concede the third-fewest shots in the league. If he starts, one attempt looks well within reach.
