The EV Eagle picks out four value bets from tonight's games featuring West Ham vs Nottingham Forest.
How does Positive Expected Value (EV) betting work?
When bookmakers set betting lines, they estimate the likelihood of each outcome.
Value Bets, our Positive EV Tool available for Oddschecker+ subscribers, leverages advanced AI to perform 100 million projections each week and monitors 125 million live price changes daily. This enables it to identify bets that have a higher probability of winning than what the lines suggest.
Sunday's Results
Joao Pedro - Over 1.5 Shots - 1pt - LOST
Yeremy Pino - Over 1.5 Shots - 1.5pt - LOST
Virgil van Dijk - Over 0.5 Shots - 2pt - LOST
Rodrigo Bentancur - Over 1.5 Tackles - 1pt @ 4/5 - WON
Jake OBrien - Over 1.5 Tackles - 1.5pt - LOST
Running P/L: +3.5
West Ham vs Nottingham Forest
Jarrod Bowen – Over 0.5 Shots on Target vs Nottingham Forest - 1pt
7/9 with Unibet
61% AI probability | 46% odds implied | 15% expected value
This has the feel of a six-pointer in the relegation battle, with West Ham 18th and Forest 17th. If there’s ever a moment for West Ham’s main man to step up, it’s now.
Bowen has recorded at least one shot on target in five of his last seven appearances, scoring three goals across that same spell. Expect him to be central to everything West Ham do going forward.
Elliot Anderson – Over 1.5 Fouls vs West Ham - 1pt
53% AI probability | 46% odds implied | 15% expected value
23/20 with SpreadEX.
Given the importance of this fixture, it has the potential to become a combative, scrappy contest. Anderson looks a strong candidate to rack up fouls if that’s the case.
He’s committed 2+ fouls in 12 of his last 20 games this season and in four of his last seven, making this a solid angle in a high-intensity matchup.
Skybet
- 24/7 live chat support
- Some of the best price boosts in the market
- Intuitive user experience
Lecce vs Roma
Zeki Celik – Over 0.5 Shots vs Lecce - 1pt
5/6 with Ladbrokes.
63% AI probability | 55% odds implied | 15% expected value
Celik let us down over the weekend on this same bet, but Roma now face a side conceding more shots than the league average.
He’s still managed a shot in 11 of his last 13 games, and at this price, he’s worth backing to return to shooting ways today.
Danilo Veiga – Over 2.5 Tackles vs Roma - 1pt
17/20 with William Hill
60% AI probability | 54% odds implied | 12% expected value
Veiga is a tackling machine. He averages 3.03 tackles per 90 this season and has recorded 3+ tackles in eight of his last 11 games.
Despite coming off the bench against Juventus last time out, he still made five tackles in just 58 minutes. Roma average the third-most possession in Serie A, and against high-possession sides Veiga has delivered consistently:
- 3 vs Como
- 5 vs Juventus
- 3 vs Napoli
Another strong spot for his tackling output.
