How does Positive Expected Value (EV) betting work?

When bookmakers set betting lines, they estimate the likelihood of each outcome.

Value Bets, our Positive EV Tool available for Oddschecker+ subscribers, leverages advanced AI to perform 100 million projections each week and monitors 125 million live price changes daily. This enables it to identify bets that have a higher probability of winning than what the lines suggest.

Yesterday's Results

Jarrod Bowen – Over 0.5 Shots on Target vs Nottingham Forest - 1pt - 7/9 - LOST
Elliot Anderson – Over 1.5 Fouls vs West Ham - 1pt - 23/20 - WON
Zeki Celik – Over 0.5 Shots vs Lecce - 1pt - LOST
Danilo Veiga – Over 2.5 Tackles vs Roma - 1pt - WON

Running P/L: +3.4 pts

Bournemouth vs Tottenham

Archie Gray – Over 0.5 Shots vs Bournemouth - 1pt

8/11 with Ladbrokes at the time of publishing.

74% AI probability | 58% odds implied | 29% expected value

Gray has been stepping into some dangerous attacking positions and has become a key threat for Spurs inside the box in recent games. He’s a progressive player who looks to carry the ball forward and isn’t afraid to join the attack.

He’s recorded a shot in eight of his last 11 games and now faces a Bournemouth side that has been conceding plenty of attempts recently.

Richarlison – Over 0.5 Shots on Target vs Bournemouth - 1pt

8/11 with BetMGM at the time of publishing.

61% AI probability | 58% odds implied | 6% expected value

Richarlison is Spurs’ most frequent shooter averaging 2.5 shots per 90, and has hit the target in six of his last seven games. With his volume and central role, one effort on target looks well within reach.

Marcus Tavernier – Over 1.5 Tackles vs Tottenham - 1.5 pts

23/20 with 10Bet at the time of publishing.

65% AI probability | 47% odds implied | 39% expected value

Tavernier has made 2+ tackles in five of his last eight games and now faces a Spurs side whose midfield includes Xavi Simons and Palhinha, the second- and third-most dispossessed players in the team.

Spurs are also the fourth-most tackled side in the league, which sets this up well for Tavernier’s defensive output.

Newcastle vs Leeds

Bruno Guimarães – Over 0.5 Shots on Target vs Leeds - 1 pt

11/10 with BetVictor at the time of publishing.

50% AI probability | 48% odds implied | 6% expected value

Guimarães has scored in each of his last two games and has registered at least one shot on target in seven of his last nine appearances, hitting the target twice in three of those.

He’s scored four goals over that period and faces Leeds, while also averaging the most shots on target per game at home of any Newcastle player.

Fulham vs Chelsea

Sander Berge – Over 1.5 Tackles vs Chelsea - 1pt

5/6 with bet365 (Super Sub) at the time of publishing.

66% AI probability | 55% odds implied | 21% expected value

Berge has recorded 2+ tackles in five of his last 10 starts and faces a Chelsea side that concede plenty of tackling opportunities — seventh most tackles against in the league.

Chelsea also average the fourth-most possession, which should give Fulham’s midfield ample chances to engage. Berge managed two tackles the last time these sides met.