How does Positive Expected Value (EV) betting work?

When bookmakers set betting lines, they estimate the likelihood of each outcome.

Value Bets, our Positive EV Tool available for Oddschecker+ subscribers, leverages advanced AI to perform 100 million projections each week and monitors 125 million live price changes daily. This enables it to identify bets that have a higher probability of winning than what the lines suggest.

Yesterday's Results

Archie Gray – Over 0.5 Shots vs Bournemouth - 1pt - 8/11 - VOID
Richarlison – Over 0.5 Shots on Target vs Bournemouth - 1pt - 8/11 - LOST
Marcus Tavernier – Over 1.5 Tackles vs Tottenham - 1.5 pts - 23/20 - LOST
Bruno Guimarães – Over 0.5 Shots on Target vs Leeds - 1 pt - 11/10 - WON
Sander Berge – Over 1.5 Tackles vs Chelsea - 1pt 5/6 - WON

Running P/L: +2.9pts

 

Bet Builder – 9/2 with SpreadEX | 0.5 pts

  • Martin Ødegaard Over 1.5 Shots

  • Declan Rice Over 0.5 Fouls

  • Cody Gakpo Over 1.5 Shots

Arsenal vs Liverpool

Cody Gakpo – Over 1.5 Shots vs Arsenal - 1.5 pts

23/20 with SpreadEX at the time of publising.

75% AI probability | 47% Odds implied | 62% Expected Value

In recent starts, Gakpo’s shot output reads: 5, 3, 1, 2, 3, 3, 4. With Ekitike likely out injured, he should start upfront again.

In his last seven games starting as a striker he has managed 5, 5, 2, 2, 8, 0, 2 shots, including five shots last week against Fulham.

Arsenal presents a tough challenge, but with Liverpool’s front line depleted through injury, Gakpo looks the most likely to let fly. He had two shots against Arsenal from the left wing when these sides met earlier this season and two shots in his only start against Arsenal last season in a 2-2 draw.

Declan Rice – Over 0.5 Fouls Vs Liverpool - 1pt

4/5 with Betway at the time of publishing.

65% AI probability | 56% Odds implied | 17% Expected Value

Rice usually takes centre stage in big games and isn’t afraid to get his hands dirty. He has committed a foul in 15 of his last 22 starts, particularly in high-profile games (Chelsea, Spurs, Newcastle, Man City, Liverpool, Man United this season).

Tonight’s match is huge - it could put Arsenal 8 points clear at the top, so expect Rice to be heavily involved.

Martin Ødegaard – Over 1.5 Shots vs Liverpool - 1pt

10/13 with BetMGM (as short as 2/5 elsewhere) at the time of publishing.

64% AI probability | 56% Odds implied | 14% Expected Value

Ødegaard has found form recently after a difficult 2025 and is playing with confidence. He scored against Brighton and his recent shot counts are: 1, 5, 2, 0, 1, 3, 1, 0, 4.

Notably, he managed 5 and 3 shots against strong Aston Villa sides, and attempted three shots when these sides met earlier in the season.