EV Eagle's Five Football Betting Tips on Friday

How does Positive Expected Value (EV) betting work?

When bookmakers set betting lines, they estimate the likelihood of each outcome.

Value Bets, our Positive EV Tool available for Oddschecker+ subscribers, leverages advanced AI to perform 100 million projections each week and monitors 125 million live price changes daily. This enables it to identify bets that have a higher probability of winning than what the lines suggest.

Yesterday's Results

Cody Gakpo – Over 1.5 Shots vs Arsenal - 1.5 pts - 23/20 - LOST
Bet Builder – 9/2 with SpreadEX | 0.5 pts - LOST
Declan Rice – Over 0.5 Fouls Vs Liverpool - 1pt - 4/5 - WON
Martin Ødegaard – Over 1.5 Shots vs Liverpool - 1pt 10/13 - LOST

Running P/L: +0.7pts

Mauro Arambarri – Over 1.5 Shots vs Real Sociedad - 1pt

11/10 with William Hill at the time of publishing.

58% AI probability | 48% Odds implied | 22% Expected Value

Arambarri’s recent shot count reads: 3, 2, 3, 0, 3, 3, 3, 2. Real Sociedad concede a fair amount of shots, ranking 10th most in the league, which gives Arambarri a solid platform to register 2+ attempts again.

Gonçalo Guedes – Over 1.5 Shots vs Getafe - 1pt

3/4 with SpreadEX at the time of publishing.

64% AI probability | 57% Odds implied | 12% Expected Value

Another player who isn’t afraid to let fly, Guedes’ recent shot count reads: 4, 1, 5, 3, 1, 2, 2, 1, 2. His willingness to shoot regularly keeps this line firmly in play.

Brais Méndez – Over 1.5 Fouls vs Getafe - 1.5 pts

8/11 with BetMGM at the time of publishing.

60% AI probability | 57% Odds implied | 5% Expected Value

Getafe draw the second most fouls in the league, giving Méndez a strong opportunity to rack them up. His foul count reads: 2, 1, 5, 2, 2, 1, 1, 4, 0, 3, 0, 3, 2, 0, 2, 3, 2.

He is Sociedad’s second most consistent fouler, making 2+ a realistic outcome.

Arthur Theate – Over 1.5 Tackles vs Dortmund - 1pt

19/20 with William Hill at the time of publishing.

60% AI probability | 51% Odds implied | 17% Expected Value

Frankfurt face Dortmund, who average the sixth-highest possession in the league, while Frankfurt themselves rank fourth. This has the makings of a real scrap for the ball. Dortmund also average the third most tackles against, with Frankfurt fourth.

Theate looks well placed for tackles, having managed 2+ in each of his last four starts and 8 of his last 13 overall. He also lines up against two of Dortmund’s most dispossessed players in Couto and Beier down the right.

Julian Brandt – Over 0.5 Shots on Target vs Frankfurt - 1pt

1/1 with BetMGM at the time of publishing.

55% AI probability | 50% Odds implied | 9% Expected Value

Brandt is in incredible form, scoring four goals in his last three games. His recent shot numbers read 2, 3, 2, 2, with shots on target of 1, 2, 2, 1.

Frankfurt don’t concede many shots, but if anyone can break down their defensive structure, it’s a confident and in-form Julian Brandt.