How does Positive Expected Value (EV) betting work?

When bookmakers set betting lines, they estimate the likelihood of each outcome.

Value Bets, our Positive EV Tool available for Oddschecker+ subscribers, leverages advanced AI to perform 100 million projections each week and monitors 125 million live price changes daily. This enables it to identify bets that have a higher probability of winning than what the lines suggest.

Yesterday's Results

Mauro Arambarri – Over 1.5 Shots vs Real Sociedad - 1pt - WON @ 11/10
Gonçalo Guedes – Over 1.5 Shots vs Getafe - 1pt - LOST
Brais Méndez – Over 1.5 Fouls vs Getafe - 1.5 pts - WON @ 8/11
Arthur Theate – Over 1.5 Tackles vs Dortmund - 1pt - WON @ 19/20
Julian Brandt – Over 0.5 Shots on Target vs Frankfurt - 1pt - WON @ 1/1

Running P/L: +4.2pts

Bayer Leverkusen v VFB Stuttgart

Alex Grimaldo - Over 1.5 Shots - 1pt

Best odds of 17/20 at Betway while publishing.

Alex Grimaldo consistently probes from left-back, averaging over 2 shots per game in Leverkusen's high-octane attack and clearing 1.5 shots in 7 of his last 10 outings. His overlapping runs and set-piece duties rack up attempts, especially against sides weak on the flanks. Perfect mid-tier leg for bet builders given his volume shooting profile.

Tip 2: Maximilian Mittelstädt - Over 0.5 Shots - 1pt

Best odds of 3/4 at Betway while publishing.

Mittelstädt cleared 0.5 shots in 7 of his last 10 games, averaging 1.1 per match this season with penalty duties adding edge. Recent form shows 1 shot per game over his last three, supporting the 64.37% AI probability against 57.14% implied for 12.65% EV.

Atalanta vs Torino

Tip 3: Giovanni Simeone - Over 0.5 Shots On Target - 1pt

Best odds of evens at bet365 while publishing.

Giovanni Simeone clears 0.5 shots on target in 9 of 10 recent games, including all five away outings, while averaging 1.1 SOT this season. Atalanta's concession of 1.0 goals per game opens the door, making this a straightforward leg at near evens. AI probability hits 52.68% (5.36% EV vs 50% implied).

AS Roma vs Sassuolo

Tip 4: Manu Kone - Over 1.5 Fouls - 0.5pt

Best odds of 4/5 at bet365

Manu Kone commits over 1.5 fouls in 7 of 10 recent games and 4 of his last five, aligning with his 1.8 seasonal average in combative midfield battles. This physical profile suits a gritty matchup where he's central to disruptions. Strong anchor leg for bet builders.

Valencia vs Elche

Tip 5: David Affengruber - Over 0.5 Shots - 0.5pt

Best odds of 17/20 at Betway while publishing.

David Affengruber has cleared 0.5 shots in 4 of his last 5 games, bringing aerial dominance as a 6'1" centre-back who wins 64% of duels. Valencia struggle in the air and have shipped 7 set-piece goals, opening chances for Affengruber on corners or frees. Ideal bet builder leg given his recent shot volume from dead balls.