How does Positive Expected Value (EV) betting work?

When bookmakers set betting lines, they estimate the likelihood of each outcome.

Value Bets, our Positive EV Tool available for Oddschecker+ subscribers, leverages advanced AI to perform 100 million projections each week and monitors 125 million live price changes daily. This enables it to identify bets that have a higher probability of winning than what the lines suggest.

Yesterday's Results

Dayot Upamecano - Over 0.5 Shots - 1pt Best odds of 1/1 LOST
Konrad Laimer - Over 0.5 Shots - 0.5pt Best odds of 26/25 WON
Giovanni Di Lorenzo - Over 0.5 Shots - 1pt Best odds of evens WON
Lautaro Martinez - To Score Or Assist - 0.5pt Best odds of 6/5 LOST

Running P/L: +7.3 pts

Genoa vs Cagliari

Leo Østigård – Over 0.5 Shots vs Cagliari - 1pt

19/20 with BetMGM at the time of publishing.

55% AI probability | 51% Odds implied | 8% Expected Value

Genoa average the fifth most crosses in Serie A, while Cagliari concede the sixth most crosses and the third most corners. At home, Genoa should be able to exploit that aerially.

Østigård has managed a shot in seven of his last eight games, with four of those featuring two shots. The only exception came against AC Milan, making this a solid spot for him to have a go at goal.

Gabriele Zappa – Over 1.5 Tackles vs Genoa - 1.5 pts

8/11 with William Hill at the time of publishing.

65% AI probability | 58% Odds implied | 12% Expected Value

Zappa has managed 2+ tackles in 7 of his last 8 games.

Genoa have been involved in the second most duels this season and average the second most tackles against in Serie A, which should provide Zappa with plenty of opportunities to get involved defensively.

Sevilla vs Celta Vigo

Kike Salas – Over 1.5 Tackles vs Celta Vigo - 0.75 pts

3/4 with SpreadEX at the time of publishing.

60% AI probability | 57% Odds implied | 5% Expected Value

Salas steps into the team again tonight and has a strong tackle profile when starting, managing 2+ tackles in 11 of his last 15 starts. He also recorded two tackles when these sides met back in May.

5.0
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Juventus vs Cremonese

Matteo Bianchetti – Over 1.5 Tackles vs Juventus - 1pts

1/1 best price with bet365 (super sub) at the time of publishing.

60% Ai probability, 50% odds implied probability, 19% expected value.

Juventus rank fourth for average possession in the league, a setup that often boosts opponent tackle volume.

Centre-back tackles vs Juventus:
2, 3, 0, 2, 3, 1, 0, 3, 0, 1, 0, 1, 2, 0, 2, 1

Bianchetti tackle counts:
1, 1, 1, 3, 4, 3, 2, 2, 0, 5, 3

With Juventus likely to dominate the ball, Bianchetti should be forced into defensive actions, keeping 2+ tackles firmly in play.