How does Positive Expected Value (EV) betting work?

When bookmakers set betting lines, they estimate the likelihood of each outcome.

Value Bets, our Positive EV Tool available for Oddschecker+ subscribers, leverages advanced AI to perform 100 million projections each week and monitors 125 million live price changes daily. This enables it to identify bets that have a higher probability of winning than what the lines suggest.

Yesterday's Results

Ansgar Knauff  Over 0.5 Shots on Target - 0.75 pts - LOST
Ansgar Knauff Over 1.5 Shots on Target - 0.25 pts - LOST

Running P/L: +6.8pts

RB Leipzig vs Freiburg

David Raum – Over 0.5 Shots vs Freiburg - 1pt

11/10 with Betway at the time of publishing.

67% AI probability | 48% Odds implied | 41% Expected Value

Raum has failed to shoot just four times in 18 games this season. He managed a shot in the reverse fixture, making this a strong pick for another attempt.

Yuito Suzuki – Over 1.5 Shots vs RB Leipzig - 1 pt

41/50 with BetMGM at the time of publishing.

69% AI probability | 55% Odds implied | 26% Expected Value

Suzuki is Freiburg’s second-most active shooter, averaging 2.5 shots per 90 minutes. His recent shot counts read: 5, 2, 3, 6, 2, 1, 3, 0, 3, 2, 1. Leipzig are in a downturn, losing their last two games, while Freiburg have only one loss in their last eight, and Suzuki is likely to play a key role.

Inter Milan vs Lecce

Danilo Veiga – Over 2.5 Tackles vs Inter - 1pt

19/10 with SpreadEX at the time of publishing.

58% AI probability | 34% Odds implied probability.

Veiga is a tackling machine, averaging 3.10 tackles per 90 minutes this season. He has recorded 3+ tackles in eight of his last 12 games.

Against high-possession sides, Veiga has been consistent:

  • 3 vs Como (most possession in league)
  • 5 vs Juventus (4th most)
  • 3 vs Napoli (5th most)
  • 4 vs Roma (3rd most)
  • 3 vs Bologna (6th most)

Inter have the second most possession in the league which gives Veiga plenty of opportunities to engage defensively. 

Hoffenheim vs M'Gladbach

Wouter Burger – Over 1.5 Fouls vs M'Gladbach - 1 pt

49/50 with BetMGM at the time of publishing.

56% AI probability | 50% Odds implied | 10% Expected Value

Burger regularly hits 2+ fouls. Recent counts: 2, 2, 0, 5, 2, 3, 2, 1, 1, 5, 1, 2, 3, 2, achieving 2+ in 10 of his last 15 games and 6 of his last 7.

Gladbach draw the 8th most fouls in the Bundesliga this season, and Burger tends to foul more at home: 2, 5, 3, 1, 5, 2, 3, 5, 4.

Inter vs Lecce

Nicolo Barella – Over 1.5 Tackles vs Lecce - 1pt

5/6 with SpreadEX at the time of publishing.

65% AI probability | 55% Odds implied | 19% Expected Value

Lecce are the second-most tackled team in Serie A and engage in the 5th most duels. Barella is Inter’s second most frequent tackler, averaging 2.06 tackles per 90 minutes. He has recorded 2+ tackles in 5 of his last 6 starts and 13 of his last 20.

Barella's tackles against the most-tackled sides this season:

  • Roma (most tackles against): 4
  • Genoa (3rd most): 2
  • Como (4th most): 1
  • Napoli (5th most): 3
  • Atalanta (6th most): 2