The EV Eagle had two winners from three tips yesterday, don't miss today's Premier League value tips.
How does Positive Expected Value (EV) betting work?
When bookmakers set betting lines, they estimate the likelihood of each outcome.
Value Bets, our Positive EV Tool available for Oddschecker+ subscribers, leverages advanced AI to perform 100 million projections each week and monitors 125 million live price changes daily. This enables it to identify bets that have a higher probability of winning than what the lines suggest.
Yesterday's Results:
Morgan Whittaker – Over 0.5 Shots On Target vs West Brom - 1pt @ 17/20 - WON
Aune Heggebo – Over 1.5 Fouls vs Middlesbrough - 1pt @ 6/5 - LOST
Tyrhys Dolan – Over 1.5 Tackles vs Girona - 1pt - 10/11 - WON
Running P/L: +8pts
Nicolas Domínguez – Over 0.5 Shots - 1pt
10/13 with 10Bet
78% AI probability | 57% Odds implied | 39% Expected Value
Domínguez has been a frequent shooter for Nottingham Forest, averaging 2 shots per 90 this season. Recent shots across all competitions read: 2, 5, 1, 0, 1, 3, 1, 1, 2, 1.
Arsenal naturally make this a tougher assignment given how few shots they concede, but the price still looks generous given Domínguez’s role and volume.
Yeremy Pino – Over 1.5 Shots - 1pt
17/20 with BetMGM
61% AI probability | 54% Odds implied | 12% Expected Value
It’s been a turbulent week for Palace, with their manager announcing he’ll leave at the end of the season, Marc Guéhi expected to depart, and Jean-Philippe Mateta surrounded by transfer speculation. Pino will be keen to make a statement.
His recent shot totals read: 2, 3, 0, 3, 2, 0, 2, 4, 1, 2.
Sunderland concede 22% more shots than the league average, the third-most in the Premier League, creating a strong environment for shot volume.
Monopoly Sports
Harry Wilson – Over 0.5 Shots On Target - 1pt
17/20 with BetVictor
57% AI probability | 54% Odds implied | 5% Expected Value
Wilson is in the form of his life, scoring five goals in his last nine games, including each of his last three. He registered eight shots against Chelsea last time out, highlighting his confidence.
He has recorded a shot on target in each of his last five appearances.
Kevin Schade – Over 0.5 Shots On Target - 1 pt
5/6 with bet365 (super sub)
55% AI probability | 50% Odds implied | 11% Expected Value
Schade scored and landed two shots on target in the reverse fixture and has managed a SOT in four of his last five games: 1, 1, 0, 5, 3.
Brentford are one of the form sides in the Premier League, unbeaten in five (four wins, one draw), and boast the fourth-best home record this season. They also have the third-best home scoring record (23 goals), and Schade looks well placed to play a key attacking role.
Oliver McBurnie – Over 0.5 Shots On Target - 1pt
4/5 with bet365 (super sub)
62% AI probability | 56% Odds implied | 12% Expected Value
McBurnie’s recent shots on target read: 1, 1, 2, 1, 1, 2. He has scored three goals in his last five games, while Southampton concede above league-average shots, making this a solid spot for another effort on target.
