Harry Kane to win the Ballon dOr has shortened from 4/9, with 2/5 now the best price at Bet Victor as eight of 19 bookmakers cut their odds.
The odds on Harry Kane to win the Ballon d'Or have been slashed from 4/9 to 2/7 with QuinnBet, with the ceremony only days away and the bookmakers moving firmly in the Bayern Munich striker's direction.
Eight of 19 bookmakers have cut their odds on Harry Kane to win the Ballon d'Or.
The best price left is 2/5 with Bet Victor, and Coral and Ladbrokes match it.
Kane scored a penalty and set up a goal in Bayern Munich's 2-2 Champions League draw with Arsenal on 21 October 2026.
That spot-kick made it 10 consecutive Champions League matches with a goal for Kane, after a season in which he scored 61 times for Bayern Munich.
Nobody has confirmed a single reason for the move, but the timing is hard to ignore. On Wednesday, Kane set up Alphonso Davies for Bayern Munich's first-half equaliser against Arsenal at the Allianz Arena, then scored from the spot in a 2-2 draw in the Champions League. A goal and an assist on a big European night, in the last week before the award is handed out, is exactly the kind of timely statement that keeps a name at the front of the conversation. The bookmakers took note.
The real case, though, was built over the whole of 2025-26. Kane won the Bundesliga title as part of a domestic double with Bayern Munich, and he picked up the European Golden Shoe along the way. That is the body of work the market is pricing in, and the fact that layers are cutting him rather than holding firm tells you how they read it. Kane admitted on 22 October that the wait is "very stressful for everyone" in his family. Fair enough. Even a man with his record in front of goal is allowed a few nerves this close to the line.
Ballon dOr Win Market odds
Best odds 2/5 with Bet Victor, worst 2/7 with Paddy Power. Coral and Ladbrokes match Bet Victor at the top of the board, while Bet365, Betway and William Hill all sit somewhere between those two marks. On a favourite this short, the gap between the best and worst prices is worth shopping around for.
Last updated: 22 October 2026, 12:16 UK time
Odds below are live and may have changed since publishing this article.
Is Harry Kane to win the Ballon dOr the clear favourite?
Kane is the clear favourite at a best price of 2/5 with Bet Victor, and the gap back to the chasing pack is wide. That price works out at an implied probability of roughly 71%, which is about as strong as an award market gets this late on. Lamine Yamal is the only name priced anywhere near him, after lifting the World Cup and a league title with Barcelona last season. Kylian Mbappe's scoring keeps him on the board, but the market has him a long way back, and nobody else is getting a serious look.
Harry Kane – 61 goals for Bayern Munich, a domestic double and the European Golden Shoe give him the strongest body of work on the board.
Lamine Yamal – 3/1 with Sporting Index. A World Cup winner and league champion with Barcelona, and the only real threat to the favourite.
Kylian Mbappe – 22/1 with Spreadex. Scored 40 goals in 42 matches across La Liga and the Champions League for Real Madrid, yet still sits a distant third.
Lionel Messi – The last of the four priced names, and further back in the betting than Mbappe.
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What does Harry Kane need to do to win the Ballon dOr?
The ceremony takes place on Monday 26 October 2026 at the London Palladium, the first time in the award's history that the gala has been held outside Paris. Kane's case rests on the season already played: a domestic double and European Golden Shoe with Bayern Munich, backed up by a goalscoring run that stretched into this week's Champions League draw with Arsenal. Yamal is the only alternative with a real case, built on a World Cup win and a league title with Barcelona, and it will come down to whether voters weigh a full club season or a summer of international football more heavily. The bookmakers have moved one way so far, with 2/5 with Bet Victor the best price available on Kane, but it remains a betting market rather than a settled outcome, so weigh up the odds and stake sensibly.
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