Nottingham Forest v Arsenal

Milenkovic to be fouled @ 1.91 Bet365 (1.5u)

Milenkovic has featured in 18 of Forest’s last 20 games and across those appearances he’s been fouled 19 times, averaging just over 1 foul won per game. This sets up well against Gyokeres, who’s had a frustrating start to life in the EPL and is averaging 1.5 fouls per 90. With that matchup, asking Milenkovic to draw a single foul looks great value, especially given the fact it’s priced lower at three other bookmakers.

4.5
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Wolves v Newcastle

Woltemade To Score @ 2.25 Bet365 (1.25u)

Woltemade has scored 9 goals from 22 starts this season, which on the surface makes this price look about right. But they’re against Wolves… Wolves sit bottom of the table and are conceding the second most goals in the league, only behind West Ham.

Newcastle should see plenty of the ball here and create sustained pressure, with lots of crosses into the box, a scenario that suits Woltemade given his size and presence in the area.

On top of that, Wissa is back in the squad, giving us super sub protection on Bet365. If Woltemade is subbed, Wissa steps in at the same odds and is arguably the more clinical finisher, which only strengthens the bet.

Aston Villa v Everton

Morgan Rogers over 1.5 fouls won @ 1.90 Sky Bet (1u)

Morgan Rogers is one of the most dangerous players in the Premier League right now and Everton will have clear instructions to stop him early. That usually means getting tight and breaking up play rather than allowing him space to turn and drive.

Rogers is set to operate centrally again, which is ideal for fouls won. In his recent games from the attacking midfield role, he’s drawn 3, 3, 4, 1, 3, 1, 2, and 2 fouls, clearing this line comfortably.

Everton are also expected to arrive light in midfield, likely relying on Garner and Röhl in holding roles. Between them they commit over 3 fouls per 90.